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Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance

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  • Jean-Bernard Chatelain

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

  • Kirsten Ralf

    ()
    (Ecole Supérieure du Commerce Extérieur - ESCE - International business school)

Abstract

Cet article montre qu'une régression multiple avec deux variables explicatives très corrélées entre elles et dont les corrélations simples avec une variable dépendante sont quasi nulles peuvent correspondre soit à une régression fallacieuse, soit à un modèle homéostatique très sensible à la présence d'observations atypiques à fort levier. La méthode de régression ne permet pas de distinguer entre ces deux modèles. La significativité statistique des paramètres, par ailleurs très élevés, est facile à obtenir dans ce cas, comme le montre une simulation de Monte-Carlo. Un exemple est donné par l'article de Burnside et Dollar [2000], sur les liens entre aide au développement, politiques économiques et croissance.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00674011.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00674011

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Keywords: Régression fallacieuse; quasi-colinéarité; "suppresseur classique"; facteur d'inflation d'un paramètre; aide au développement; croissance économique.;

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  1. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2010. "Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta-study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 391-410.
  2. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2012. "Spurious Regressions and Near-Multicollinearity, with an Application to Aid, Policies and Growth," MPRA Paper 42533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452175.
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Cited by:
  1. Oasis, Kodila-Tedika & Remy, Bolito-Losembe, 2013. "Corruption et Etats fragiles africains
    [Corruption and Failed African States]
    ," MPRA Paper 44686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Asongu Simplice & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2013. "State fragility, rent seeking and lobbying: evidence from African data," Working Papers 13/019, African Governance and Development Institute..
  3. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2012. "Entrepreneurship and property right: de Soto'r right
    [Entrepreneuriat et droit de propriété : de Soto a raison]
    ," MPRA Paper 43464, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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