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Spurious Regressions and Near-Multicollinearity, with an Application to Aid, Policies and Growth

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Abstract

Explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid with economic growth) may have very large and statistically significant estimated parameters in multiple regressions, which are unifortunately "outliers driven" or spurious. This is obtained by including another regressor which is highly correlated with the initial regressor, such as a lag, a square or interaction terms of this regressor. The analysis is applied on the "Botswana outliers driven" Burnside and Dollar [2000] article which found that aid had an effect on growth only for countries achieving "good" macroeconomic policies.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12078.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12078.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12078

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Keywords: Near-Multicollinearity; student t-statistic; spurious regressions; Ceteris paribus; classical suppressor; parameter inflation factor; growth; foreign aid.;

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References

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  1. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, November.
  2. Friedman, Lynn & Wall, Melanie, 2005. "Graphical Views of Suppression and Multicollinearity in Multiple Linear Regression," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 59, pages 127-136, May.
  3. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Conditional Aid Effectiveness. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Aris Spanos, 2006. "Revisiting the omitted variables argument: Substantive vs. statistical adequacy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-218.
  6. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
  7. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
  8. Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-86, April.
  9. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2010. "Inference on Time-Invariant Variables using Panel Data: A Pre-Test Estimator with an Application to the Returns to Schooling," PSE Working Papers hal-00492039, HAL.
  11. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, 07.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "The Failure of Financial Macroeconomics and What to Do About it," Post-Print halshs-00706777, HAL.
  2. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Karim Azizi & Nicolas Canry & Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Bruno Tinel, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825446, HAL.
  4. Karim Azizi & Nicolas Canry & Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Bruno Tinel, 2013. "Government Solvency, Austerity and Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Keynesian Appraisal of Transversality and No Ponzi Game Conditions," Working Papers hal-00818474, HAL.
  5. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "Can Statistics Do without Artefacts?," Working Papers hal-00750495, HAL.
  6. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "The Failure Of Financial Macroeconomics And What To Do About It," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 21-53, 09.
  7. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00674011, HAL.
  8. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2012. "Les liaisons fallacieuses : quasi-colinéarité et " suppresseur classique ", aide au développement et croissance," Post-Print halshs-00674011, HAL.
  9. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of development aid on education and health: Survey and new evidence from dynamic models," MERIT Working Papers 057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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