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Abstract

Cet article propose un examen empirique de l'échec du Plan de Stabilisation par le Change mis en place sous l'impulsion du FMI en Turquie à partir de janvier 2000. Nous estimons un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur dans lequel les chocs de court terme sont modélisés à l'aide d'une parité de taux d'intérêt non couverte. L'emploi de données en fréquence quotidienne, inhabituelle dans ce type d'étude, nous permet de rendre compte de la contrainte liée à la fixité du taux de change, pesant au jour le jour sur l'autorité monétaire. Nos résultats soulignent que l'apparente flexibilité laissée à la banque centrale turque au travers des ajustements de la base monétaire était en réalite largement tributaire des facteurs externes, laissant la banque centrale pieds et poings liés au bon vouloir du marché.

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File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/08/47/17/PDF/Bla06009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00084717.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00084717

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00084717
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Related research

Keywords: Crise de change; politique monétaire; Plan de Stabilisation par le Change; Turquie; VECM.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
• E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
• F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References

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1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
   
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   • Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   • Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
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7. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. " Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-45, June.
   
   • Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
9. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December.
10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    
    • Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
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11. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-35, June.
    
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12. Ayse Ertugrul & Jerome Hericourt & Julien Reynaud, 2005. "Fonction de reaction et politique monetaire en changes fixes : une nouvelle formulation appliquee a la Turquie," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 97-119.
13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
14. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.

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