Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS
AbstractGINFORS (Global INterindustry FORecasting System) represents a state–of–the–art tool for integrated quantitative policy assessments of long run economic developments and associated pressures on the environment. Its empirical modelling framework rests on national input–output accounts which are bilaterally interconnected by international trade at the industry level. Assuming bounded rationality of agents and imperfect markets, an iterative solution algorithm facilitates ex ante simulation studies of the non-equilibrium features of globalizing economies. From a methodological point of view, GINFORS might thus be categorised as a dynamic econometric model. However, its powerful simulation capabilities also provide extensive insights into the broader economy–energy–environment nexus (see, i.a., http://cecilia2050.eu/ or www.topdad.eu/ for ongoing FP7 research work with references to climate change and the transformation to a low carbon economy as well as to climate change adaptation policy issues). The GINFORS approach relies heavily on the availability of harmonised international Input–Output datasets (preferably as annual time series). As the May 2012 release of the publicly available World Input Output Database (WIOD, see also http://www.wiod.org/) represents outstanding advancements in this regard, we decided to incorporate the WIOD datasets into the GINFORS database. This paper highlights selected issues of these most recent empirical maintenance works. Given our personal experience we intend to illustrate the significance of the WIOD database but also to stimulate a discussion of its linkages to the underlying United Nations data set on the sequence of accounts and balancing items, the second core data set within the System of National Accounts (SNA), from the viewpoint of applied economic research.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research in its series GWS Discussion Paper Series with number 13-5.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
environmental policy; multi-region Input-Output analysis; world trade model; embodied environmental impacts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
- Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
- Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-07-28 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2013-07-28 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-07-28 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2013-07-28 (Forecasting)
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