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Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS

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  • Mark Meyer

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Martin Distelkamp

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Gerd Ahlert

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer

    ()
    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

GINFORS (Global INterindustry FORecasting System) represents a state–of–the–art tool for integrated quantitative policy assessments of long run economic developments and associated pressures on the environment. Its empirical modelling framework rests on national input–output accounts which are bilaterally interconnected by international trade at the industry level. Assuming bounded rationality of agents and imperfect markets, an iterative solution algorithm facilitates ex ante simulation studies of the non-equilibrium features of globalizing economies. From a methodological point of view, GINFORS might thus be categorised as a dynamic econometric model. However, its powerful simulation capabilities also provide extensive insights into the broader economy–energy–environment nexus (see, i.a., http://cecilia2050.eu/ or www.topdad.eu/ for ongoing FP7 research work with references to climate change and the transformation to a low carbon economy as well as to climate change adaptation policy issues). The GINFORS approach relies heavily on the availability of harmonised international Input–Output datasets (preferably as annual time series). As the May 2012 release of the publicly available World Input Output Database (WIOD, see also http://www.wiod.org/) represents outstanding advancements in this regard, we decided to incorporate the WIOD datasets into the GINFORS database. This paper highlights selected issues of these most recent empirical maintenance works. Given our personal experience we intend to illustrate the significance of the WIOD database but also to stimulate a discussion of its linkages to the underlying United Nations data set on the sequence of accounts and balancing items, the second core data set within the System of National Accounts (SNA), from the viewpoint of applied economic research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research in its series GWS Discussion Paper Series with number 13-5.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:13-5

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Keywords: environmental policy; multi-region Input-Output analysis; world trade model; embodied environmental impacts;

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  1. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Martin Bruckner & Stefan Giljum & Christian Lutz, 2012. "Calculating Energy-Related Co 2 Emissions Embodied In International Trade Using A Global Input--Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 113-139, November.
  2. Wiedmann, Thomas & Wilting, Harry C. & Lenzen, Manfred & Lutter, Stephan & Palm, Viveka, 2011. "Quo Vadis MRIO? Methodological, data and institutional requirements for multi-region input-output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 1937-1945, September.
  3. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input--Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
  4. Arnold Tukker & Arjan de Koning & Richard Wood & Troy Hawkins & Stephan Lutter & Jose Acosta & Jose M. Rueda Cantuche & Maaike Bouwmeester & Jan Oosterhaven & Thomas Drosdowski & Jeroen Kuenen, 2013. "Exiopol -- Development And Illustrative Analyses Of A Detailed Global Mr Ee Sut/Iot," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 50-70, March.
  5. Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Gerd Ahlert & Roland Zieschank & Prof. Dr. Hans Diefenbacher, 2013. "Basic Structures and Political Implications of a Sustainable Welfare Model," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-2, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
  6. Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
  7. J. C. Minx & T. Wiedmann & R. Wood & G. P. Peters & M. Lenzen & A. Owen & K. Scott & J. Barrett & K. Hubacek & G. Baiocchi & A. Paul & E. Dawkins & J. Briggs & D. Guan & S. Suh & F. Ackerman, 2009. "Input-Output Analysis And Carbon Footprinting: An Overview Of Applications," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 187-216.
  8. Bernd Meyer & Christian Lutz & Peter Schnur & Gerd Zika, 2007. "National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-55.
  9. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
  10. Wiedmann, Thomas, 2009. "A review of recent multi-region input-output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 211-222, December.
  11. Wiedmann, Thomas & Lenzen, Manfred & Turner, Karen & Barrett, John, 2007. "Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities -- Part 2: Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 15-26, February.
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