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Why does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?

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Author Info

  • Ana Fostel

    ()
    (Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • John Geanakoplos

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Yale University)

Abstract

The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy in its series Working Papers with number 2010-18.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics Discussion Paper, No. 1762/ the International Monetary Fund September 2010
Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2010-18

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Keywords: Endogenous Leverage; Post-Bad News Volatility; Post-Good News Volatility; Volatility Smile;

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References

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  1. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
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  5. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524124, October.
  6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  7. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and the Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 663-91, August.
  8. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
  9. Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  11. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818728, October.
  12. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
  13. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
  14. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2004. "Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1468R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2006.
  15. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2011. "Endogenous Leverage: VaR and Beyond," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1800, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Araújo, Aloísio & Kubler, Felix & Schommer, Susan, 2012. "Regulating collateral-requirements when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 450-476.
  17. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 101-131.
  18. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524117, October.
  19. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524131, October.
  20. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  21. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1751, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  22. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  23. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818742, October.
  24. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818735, October.
  25. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2013.
  2. KURASHIMA Daichi & MIZUNAGA Masashi & ODAKI Kazuhiko & WATANABE Wako, 2013. "Is Leverage a Determinant of Asset Price? Evidence from real estate transaction data," Discussion papers 13082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  3. Ana Fostel, 2012. "Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment," Working Papers 2012-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  4. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and risk taking," SAFE Working Paper Series 8, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  5. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2011. "Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000192, David K. Levine.
  6. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Reviewing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1918, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000750, David K. Levine.
  9. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Balasko, Yves & Geanakoplos, John, 2012. "Introduction to general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 400-406.
  11. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000755, David K. Levine.
  12. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2013. "Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1903, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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