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Business Cycle, Asymmetries and non-linearity in Bolivia, 1950-2015. Ciclos económicos, asimetrías y no-linealidades en Bolivia, 1950-2015

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  • Roger Alejandro Banegas-Rivero

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales 'José Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno.)

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. For this, the employed approach is based on the combination of deviations on the level of trends (alternative filters) with the algorithm of Harding & Pagan (2002). At the same time, there are considered the effective rates of economic growth by Markovian chains in order to identify non-linear regimes of expansion and economic contraction. Finally, quantifications on the natural rate of growth for Bolivia are offered under a sustained expansion regime from 1950 to 2015. The results suggest that the way of measuring the business cycle denotes alternative inferences in average duration and due to asymmetries.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Alejandro Banegas-Rivero, 2016. "Business Cycle, Asymmetries and non-linearity in Bolivia, 1950-2015. Ciclos económicos, asimetrías y no-linealidades en Bolivia, 1950-2015," Working Papers, Documentos de trabajo, Centro de Desarrollo Economico y Social (CEDES). 201609, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno.
    • Handle: RePEc:grm:wpaper:201609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-linear regimes; Business cycle; Asymmetries; Markovine chains.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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