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Régimes Monétaires et Théorie Quantitative du Produit Nominal au Portugal (1854-1998)

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  • João Sousa Andrade

    ()
    (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

L’économie portugaise, comme d’ailleurs d’autres économies occidentales, a connu différents régimes monétaires depuis la moitié du XXe siècle. Nous voulons savoir si la théorie quantitative de la monnaie appliquée au revenu nominal, et non aux prix, peut expliquer le comportement du revenu nominal dans différents régimes monétaires. Nous concentrons notre analyse sur les périodes suggérées par les historiens économiques et nous les concentrons en utilisant la méthodologie de Bai-Perron pour l’identification des ruptures structurelles des séries temporelles. Après avoir pris la décision de savoir quelles périodes utiliser et connaissant les caractéristiques de stationnarité de l’offre de monnaie et du revenu nominal, nous appliquons la méthode de co-intégration de Johansen à ces deux séries. Notre conclusion est très intéressante : la théorie quantitative du revenu nominal de la monnaie ne peut être appliquée au régime de l’étalon-or. La confirmation empirique suggère que cette théorie ne peut être appliquée que dans un régime de monnaie inconvertible.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2003-06.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Notas Económicas, 20: 63-88, 2004.
Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2003-06

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Keywords: Portugal; régimes monétaires; offre de monnaie; neutralité de la monnaie; ruptures structurelles; racines unitaires et co-intégration;

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