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Putting Things In Order: Patterns Of Trade Dynamics And Growth

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  • Robert C. Feenstra
  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

We develop a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using dis-aggregated American imports data. We find strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent with the "produce cycle" hypothesis. Countries habitually begin to export goods to the United States according to an ordering; goods are also exported in order. We estimate these orderings using a semi-parametric methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported by most countries in our sample. Our orderings seem sensible, robust and intuitive. For instance, our country rankings derived from dis-aggregated trade data, turn out to be highly correlated with macroeconomic phenomenon such as national productivity levels and growth rates.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 97-14.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:97-14

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Postal: University of California Davis - Department of Economics. One Shields Ave., California 95616-8578
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  1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, . "The Productivity of Nations," Working Papers 96012, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2005. "Similarity in export composition and catching-up," Working Papers 28-2005, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008.
  2. Michele Di Maio & Federico Tamagni, 2006. "The evolution of world trade and the Italian ‘anomaly': a new look," Working Papers 39-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008.
  3. Diego Puga & Daniel Trefler, 2009. "Wake up and smell the ginseng: International trade and the rise of incremental innovation in low-wage countries," Working Papers 2009-01, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  4. Isabelle Bensidoun & Guillaume Gaulier & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2001. "The Nature of Specialization Matters for Growth: an Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2001-13, CEPII research center.
  5. Ramkishen Rajan & Rahul Sen & Reza Y. Siregar, 2002. "Hong Kong, Singapore and the East Asian Crisis: How Important were Trade Spillovers?," Working Papers 142002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Miguel Lebre de Freitas & Ricardo Paes Mamede, 2008. "Structural Transformation and the role of Foreign Direct Investment in Portugal: a descriptive analysis for the period 1990-2005," GEE Papers 0009, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Dec 2008.
  7. Deborah L. Swenson, 2007. "Multinationals and the Creation of Chinese Trade Linkages," NBER Working Papers 13271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Brenton, Paul & Newfarmer, Richard & Walkenhorst, Peter, 2009. "Avenues for Export Diversification: Issues for Low-Income Countries," MPRA Paper 22758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Patricio Meller & Gabriela Contreras, 2002. "La competitividad de las exportaciones chinas en los mercados de Estados Unidos y Japón," Documentos de Trabajo 152, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.

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