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Hong Kong, Singapore and the East Asian Crisis: How Important were Trade Spillovers?

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Author Info

  • Ramkishen Rajan

    (University of Adelaide)

  • Rahul Sen

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Reza Y. Siregar

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

The literature on the East Asian crisis has concentrated almost exclusively on the five crisis-hit economies of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines (Asia-5). Relatively scant attention has been paid to the "twin cities" of Hong Kong and Singapore, both of which also suffered from contagious fallout from the crisis despite being well acknowledged as having relatively sound financial and economic fundamentals. This paper examines the extent to which trade spillovers, both direct and indirect, have been important in transmitting the regional downturn from the Asia-5 economies to Hong Kong and Singapore.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 142002.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:142002

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Keywords: Competition; Complementarity; Contagion; Crisis; East Asia; Hong Kong Singapore;

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References

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  1. Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Contagion," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994. "Contagious speculative attacks," BIS Working Papers 22, Bank for International Settlements.
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  4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Andrew K. Rose, 1997. "Putting Things in Order: Patterns of Trade Dynamics and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Keld Laursen, 1998. "Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Alternatives as Measures of International Specialisation," DRUID Working Papers 98-30, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  10. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
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  12. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  14. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
  15. Forbes, Kristin J. & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2002. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR," Working papers 4242-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  16. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Kenen,Peter B., 2000. "The International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644358.
  18. Sven W. Arndt, 1998. "Super-Specialization And The Gains From Trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(4), pages 480-485, October.
  19. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
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  21. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Sources of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/146, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Joseph Whitt, 1999. "The role of external shocks in the Asian financial crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 18-31.
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Cited by:
  1. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "The Evolving Asian Financial Architecture," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  2. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.

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