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Hong Kong, Singapore and the East Asian Crisis: How Important were Trade Spillovers?

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  • Ramkishen Rajan

    (University of Adelaide)

  • Rahul Sen

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Reza Y. Siregar

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

The literature on the East Asian crisis has concentrated almost exclusively on the five crisis-hit economies of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines (Asia-5). Relatively scant attention has been paid to the "twin cities" of Hong Kong and Singapore, both of which also suffered from contagious fallout from the crisis despite being well acknowledged as having relatively sound financial and economic fundamentals. This paper examines the extent to which trade spillovers, both direct and indirect, have been important in transmitting the regional downturn from the Asia-5 economies to Hong Kong and Singapore.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 142002.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:142002

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Keywords: Competition; Complementarity; Contagion; Crisis; East Asia; Hong Kong Singapore;

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References

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1999. "Kicking the Habit: Moving from Pegged Rates to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C1-14, March.
  2. Kenen,Peter B., 2000. "The International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644358.
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  4. Robert C. Feenstra & Andrew K. Rose, . "Putting Things In Order: Patterns Of Trade Dynamics And Growth," Department of Economics 97-14, California Davis - Department of Economics.
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  6. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1994. "Contagious speculative attacks," BIS Working Papers 22, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
  8. Joseph Whitt, 1999. "The role of external shocks in the Asian financial crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 18-31.
  9. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  11. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Sources of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/146, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 1999. "Production sharing in East Asia : who does what for whom, and why?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2197, The World Bank.
  16. Sven W. Arndt, 1998. "Super-Specialization And The Gains From Trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(4), pages 480-485, October.
  17. Keld Laursen, 1998. "Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Alternatives as Measures of International Specialisation," DRUID Working Papers 98-30, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  18. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
  19. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
  20. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  21. Forbes, Kristin J. & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2002. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR," Working papers 4242-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  22. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "The Evolving Asian Financial Architecture," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  2. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.

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