IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fsc/fspubl/45.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Decoupling of EU Agricultural Policy on Farm Decisions - A Dynamic Stochastic Attempt

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Gohin
  • Yu Zheng

Abstract

The Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) reform in 2003 decoupled the farm payments from production, the 2014-2020 reform decides a shift of direct payments from land to active farms. In order to study the impact of the CAP reforms on farmers' production, consumption and investment decisions, we develop a stochastic dynamic farm model with price risk and productivity risk. We structural-estimate the model's deep parameters, in particular, the risk preference parameter, using particle filter and MCMC method. The solution of the model shows that the representative farmer's decision rules on consumption and investment vary with different risk preferences. We expect a change of the farmer's risk aversion level before and after CAP reform. However, due to the quality of data and the in developing non-linear filtering technique, the crucial deep parameters are not statistically identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Gohin & Yu Zheng, 2016. "Assessing the Decoupling of EU Agricultural Policy on Farm Decisions - A Dynamic Stochastic Attempt," FOODSECURE Working papers 45, LEI Wageningen UR.
    • Handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:45
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/45_Zheng-gohin-riskestimation_complete.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Fabienne Femenia & Alexandre Gohin & Alain Carpentier, 2010. "The Decoupling of Farm Programs: Revisiting the Wealth Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 836-848.
    3. James Vercammen, 2007. "Farm bankruptcy risk as a link between direct payments and agricultural investment," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 34(4), pages 479-500, December.
    4. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre & Heinzel, Christoph, 2012. "Production Effects of Direct Payments to Active Farmers: a Microeconomic Dynamic and Stochastic Analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122447, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2011. "Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1950-1958, July.
    6. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Xiaohong Chen & Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2013. "An estimation of economic models with recursive preferences," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 4(1), pages 39-83, March.
    8. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2012. "Estimating nonlinear DSGE models by the simulated method of moments: With an application to business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 914-938.
    9. Alexandre Gohin, 2006. "Assessing CAP reform: sensitivity of modelling decoupled policies," Post-Print hal-01931639, HAL.
    10. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2009. "Modelling the impact of the CAP Single Farm Payment on farm investment and output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 36(3), pages 395-423, September.
    11. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    12. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
    13. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2477-2508, December.
    14. Teresa Serra & Spiro Stefanou & José M. Gil & Allen Featherstone, 2009. "Investment rigidity and policy measures," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 36(1), pages 103-120, March.
    15. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    16. David A. Hennessy, 1998. "The Production Effects of Agricultural Income Support Policies under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 46-57.
    17. Alexandre Gohin, 2006. "Assessing CAP Reform: Sensitivity of Modelling Decoupled Policies," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 415-440, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & George Philippidis, 2021. "European Union Agricultural Support ‘Coupling’ in Simulation Modelling: Measuring the Sustainability Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
    3. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    4. Urban, Kirsten & Jensen, Hans Grinsted & Brockmeier, Martina, 2012. "How Decoupled is the SFP in GTAP: Using a Sensitivity Analysis to Uncover the Degree of Coupling," Conference papers 332173, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2012. "Studying the effects of domestic support provisions on global agricultural trade: WTO and OECD policy indicators in the CAPRI model," Conference papers 332212, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Devadoss, Stephen & Gibson, Mark J. & Luckstead, Jeff, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on the Corn Market with Farm Heterogeneity and Endogenous Entry and Exit," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2009. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. O’Toole, Conor & Hennessy, Thia, 2015. "Do decoupled payments affect investment financing constraints? Evidence from Irish agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 67-75.
    9. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2014. "Does the “green box” of the European Union distort global markets?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, April.
    10. Marian Rizov & Jan Pokrivcak & Pavel Ciaian, 2013. "CAP Subsidies and Productivity of the EU Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 537-557, September.
    11. Barrett E. Kirwan & Michael J. Roberts, 2016. "Who Really Benefits from Agricultural Subsidies? Evidence from Field-level Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1095-1113.
    12. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    13. Boere, Esther & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2015. "Reforming the Common Agricultural Policy: Decoupling Agricultural Payments from Production and Promoting the Environment," Working Papers 201653, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    14. Zheng, Y. & Gohin, A., 2018. "Estimating dynamic stochastic decision models: explore the generalized maximum entropy alternative," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276001, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton & Todd Walker, 2014. "Accuracy, Speed and Robustness of Policy Function Iteration," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 445-476, December.
    16. Aldrich Eric Mark & Kung Howard, 2021. "Computational Methods for Production-Based Asset Pricing Models with Recursive Utility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, February.
    17. Mary, Sebastien & Santini, Fabien & Boulanger, Pierre, 2013. "An Ex-Ante Assessment of CAP Income Stabilisation Payments using a Farm Household Model," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158860, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    19. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
    20. Urban, Kirsten & Jensen, Hans G. & Brockmeier, Martina, 2016. "How decoupled is the Single Farm Payment and does it matter for international trade?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 126-138.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara van der Hout (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ledlonl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.