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Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Returns, Volatility and Volatility Risk-Premia

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  • Valentina Corradi
  • Antonio Mele

    ()

  • Walter Distaso

Abstract

This paper introduces a no-arbitrage framework to assess how macroeconomic factors help explain the risk-premium agents require to bear the risk of .uctuations in stock market volatility. We develop a model in which return volatility and volatility risk-premia are stochastic and derive no-arbitrage conditions linking volatility to macroeconomic factors. We estimate the model using data related to variance swaps, which are contracts with payo¤s indexed to nonparametric measures of realized volatility. We .nd that volatility risk-premia are strongly countercyclical, even more so than standard measures of return volatility.

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File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmgdps/dp616.pdf
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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp616.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp616

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Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

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  1. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  3. Mele, Antonio, 2007. "Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 446-478, November.
  4. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
  5. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin, 2012. "Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 0535, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  2. Arisoy, Yakup Eser, 2010. "Volatility risk and the value premium: Evidence from the French stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 975-983, May.

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