The inflation-output trade-off revisited
AbstractA rich literature from the 1970s shows that as inflation expectations become more and more ingrained, monetary policy loses its stimulative effect. In the extreme, with perfectly anticipated inflation, there is no trade-off between inflation and output. A recent literature on the interest-rate zero lower bound, however, suggests there may be some benefits from anticipated inflation when the economy is in a liquidity trap. In this paper, we reconcile these two views by showing that while it is true that, at positive interest rates, the greater the anticipated inflation the less stimulative are the effects, the opposite holds true at the zero bound. Indeed, at the zero bound, the more the public anticipates inflation, the greater is the expansionary effect of inflation on output. This leads us to revisit the trade-off between inflation and output and to show how radically it changes in the face of demand shocks large enough to bring the economy into a liquidity trap. Instead of vanishing once inflation becomes anticipated, the trade-off between inflation and output increases substantially and may become arbitrarily large. In such cases, raising the inflation target in a liquidity trap can be very stimulative.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 608.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2013-05-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-05-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-05-05 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009.
"When is the government spending multiplier large?,"
NBER Working Papers
15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goodfriend, Marvin & King, Robert G., 2005.
"The incredible Volcker disinflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 981-1015, July.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 2005. "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 11562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2005. "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998.
"The perils of Taylor Rules,"
Departmental Working Papers
199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model,"
NBER Working Papers
0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Raphael Schoenle & Gauti Eggertsson & Saroj Bhattarai, 2012.
"Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux,"
2012 Meeting Papers
487, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Saroj Bhattarai & Gauti Eggertsson & Raphael Schoenle, 2012. "Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? Redux," Staff Reports 540, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Saroj Bhattara & Gauti Eggertsson & Raphael Schoenle, 2012. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux," Working Papers 41, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
- Saroj Bhattarai & Gauti Eggertsson & Raphael Schoenle, 2014. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux," NBER Working Papers 19886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Barry J. Eichengreen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984.
"Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s,"
NBER Working Papers
1498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.