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Specialization and the skill premium in the 20th century

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Author Info
Matthew F. Mitchell

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Abstract

The skill premium fell substantially in the first part of the 20th century, and then rose at the end of the century. I argue that these changes are connected to the organization of production. When production is organized into large plants, jobs become routinized, favoring less skilled workers. Building on the notion that numerically controlled machines made capital more “flexible” at the end of the century, the model allows for changes in the ability of capital to do a wide variety of tasks. When calibrated to data on the distribution of plant sizes, the model can account for between half and two-thirds of the movement in the skill premium over the century. It is also in accord with a variety of industry level evidence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 290.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:290

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Keywords: Technological innovations;

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  1. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1998. "The Origins Of Technology-Skill Complementarity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 693-732, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 1997. "Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis," Staff Report 239, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Griliches, Zvi, 1969. "Capital-Skill Complementarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 465-68, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Francesco Caselli, 1999. "Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 78-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Lucia Foster, 2000. "Wage and Productivity Dispersion in U.S. Manufacturing: The Role of Computer Investment," NBER Working Papers 7465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 511-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Thesmar & Mathias Thoenig, 2000. "Creative Destruction And Firm Organization Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1201-1237, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1999. "Measuring the Rate of Technological Progress in Structures," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 207-230, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Charles Brown & James L. Medoff, 1989. "The Employer Size-Wage Effect," NBER Working Papers 2870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "Is the stock market overvalued?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 20-40. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Comin, D., 2000. "An Uncertainty-Driven Theory of the Productivity Slowdown: Manufacturing," Working Papers 00-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ingram, Beth F. & Neumann, George R., 2006. "The returns to skill," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 35-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Markus Mobius & Raphael Schoenle, 2006. "The Evolution of Work," NBER Working Papers 12694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Acemoglu, D., 1997. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," Working papers 97-14, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  15. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Richard Walker, 2005. "Superstars and Renaissance Men: Specialization, Market Size and the Income Distribution," CEP Discussion Papers dp0707, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thomas J. Holmes & Matthew F. Mitchell, 2003. "A theory of factor allocation and plant size," Staff Report 325, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kurokawa, Yoshinori, 2006. "Trade and Variety-Skill Complementarity: A Simple Trade-Based Resolution of Wage Inequality Anomaly," MPRA Paper 14011, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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