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A fully-rational liquidity-based theory of IPO underpricing and underperformance

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Author Info
Matthew Pritsker
Abstract

I present a fully-rational symmetric-information model of an IPO, and a dynamic imperfectly competitive model of trading in the IPO aftermarket. The model helps to explain IPO underpricing, underperformance, and why share allocations favor large institutional investors. In the model, underwriters need to sell a fixed number of shares at the IPO or in the aftermarket. To maximize revenue and avoid selling into the aftermarket where they can be exploited by large investors, underwriters distort share allocations towards investors with market power, and set the IPO offer price below the aftermarket trading price. Large investors who receive IPO share allocations sell them slowly afterwards to reduce their trade's price-impact. This curtails the shares that are available to small price-taking investors, causing them to bid up prices and bid down returns. In some simulations, the distorted share allocations and slow unwinding behavior generate post-IPO return underperformance that persists for several years.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2006-12.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2006-12

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Related research
Keywords: Econometric models ; Going public (Securities) ; Liquidity (Economics);

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. FranÁois Derrien & Kent L. Womack, 2003. "Auctions vs. Bookbuilding and the Control of Underpricing in Hot IPO Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 31-61.
  2. Ivo Welch & Jay Rial Ritter, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm258, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Booth, James R. & Chua, Lena, 1996. "Ownership dispersion, costly information, and IPO underpricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 291-310, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul Schultz, 2003. "Pseudo Market Timing and the Long-Run Underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 483-518, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Butler, Alexander W. & Grullon, Gustavo & Weston, James P., 2005. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Cost of Issuing Equity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 331-348, June. [Downloadable!]
  7. Francesca Cornelli & David Goldreich, 2003. "Bookbuilding: How Informative Is the Order Book?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1415-1443, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tim Jenkinson & Howard Jones, 2004. "Bids and Allocations in European IPO Bookbuilding," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2309-2338, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano, 2003. "IPO underpricing and after-market liquidity," CSEF Working Papers 99, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Ljungqvist, Alexander P & Nanda, Vikram & Singh, Rajdeep, 2001. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment and IPO Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 3053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Eckbo, B. Espen & Norli, Oyvind, 2005. "Liquidity risk, leverage and long-run IPO returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-35, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Aggarwal, Reena, 2003. "Allocation of initial public offerings and flipping activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 111-135, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-389, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Katrina Ellis & Roni Michaely & Maureen O'Hara, 2000. "When the Underwriter Is the Market Maker: An Examination of Trading in the IPO Aftermarket," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1039-1074, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Merton, Robert C, 1987. " A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2002. "An Optimal IPO Mechanism," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 117-46, January.
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  18. Brav, Alon & Geczy, Christopher & Gompers, Paul A., 2000. "Is the abnormal return following equity issuances anomalous?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 209-249, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Shane A. Corwin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Marc L. Lipson, 2004. "The Development of Secondary Market Liquidity for NYSE-Listed IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2339-2374, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Katrina Ellis & Roni Michaely & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "The Making of a Dealer Market: From Entry to Equilibrium in the Trading of Nasdaq Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2289-2316, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2001. "Monopoly Power in Dynamic Securities Markets," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 428, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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