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Temporary employment and the natural rate of unemployment

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  • Maria W. Otoo
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment using a combined cross section and time series data set. The results suggest that industry composition affects the natural rate. In particular, a higher share of temporary employment in a local labor market tends to lower the natural rate of unemployment--most likely through the matching function. The results suggest that the increase in the share of temporary employment may have reduced the natural rate as much as 1/4 percentage point. The results also indicate that unemployment insurance benefits tend to boost the natural rate, while having a more highly educated work force tends to lower it. However, the degree of union presence in a local labor market had little impact on the natural rate.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199966/199966abs.html
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-66.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-66

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    Related research

    Keywords: Unemployment ; Temporary employees ; Labor market;

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    References

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    1. Katharine G. Abraham & Susan K. Taylor, 1993. "Firms' Use of Outside Contractors: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    3. Katharine G. Abraham & Lawrence F. Katz, 1987. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," NBER Working Papers 1410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
    5. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
    6. Gray, Jo Anna & Spencer, David E, 1990. "Price Prediction Errors and Real Activity: A Reassessment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 658-81, October.
    7. George L. Perry, 1970. "Changing Labor Markets and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 411-448.
    8. Marcello Estevao & Saul Lach, 1999. "Measuring temporary labor outsourcing in U.S. manufacturing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2006. "The trend growth rate of employment : past, present, and future," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 43-85.

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