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Subprime mortgage delinquency rates

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  • Mark Doms
  • Fred Furlong
  • John Krainer

Abstract

We evaluate the importance of three different channels for explaining the recent performance of subprime mortgages. First, the riskiness of the subprime borrowing pool may have increased. Second, pockets of regional economic weakness may have helped push a larger proportion of subprime borrowers into delinquency. Third, for a variety of reasons, the recent history of local house price appreciation and the degree of house price deceleration may have affected delinquency rates on subprime mortgages. While we find a role for all three candidate explanations, patterns in recent house price appreciation are far and away the best single predictor of delinquency levels and changes in delinquencies. Importantly, after controlling for the current level of house price appreciation, measures of house price deceleration remain significant predictors of changes in subprime delinquencies. The results point to a possible role for changes in house price expectations for explaining changes in delinquencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007-33.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2007-33

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Keywords: Mortgage loans ; Housing - Prices;

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References

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  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
  3. Mark Doms & Frederick Furlong & John Krainer, 2007. "House prices and subprime mortgage delinquencies," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun8.
  4. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Financial innovation and the Great Moderation: what do household data say?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  5. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56.
  6. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  7. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2006. "The macroeconomic transition to high household debt," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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Cited by:
  1. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2011. "House Price, Mortgage Premium, and Business Fluctuations," Working Papers 192011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. J. Michael Collins & Carolina Reid, 2010. "Who receives a mortgage modification? Race and income differentials in loan workouts," Community Development Investment Center Working Paper 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
  4. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
  5. Jihad Dagher & Ning Fu, 2011. "What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust," IMF Working Papers 11/215, International Monetary Fund.
  6. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
  7. Eric Doviak & Sean MacDonald, 2012. "Who Defaults on their Home Mortgage?," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 43(1), pages 75-98.
  8. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. LaCour-Little, Michael & Calhoun, Charles A. & Yu, Wei, 2011. "What role did piggyback lending play in the housing bubble and mortgage collapse?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 81-100, June.
  10. Blackburn, McKinley L. & Vermilyea, Todd, 2012. "The prevalence and impact of misstated incomes on mortgage loan applications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-168.
  11. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy & Munpyung O, 2009. "Mortgage default and mortgage valuation," Working Paper Series 2009-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Carolina Reid & Elizabeth Laderman, 2009. "The untold costs of subprime lending: examining the links among higher-priced lending, foreclosures and race in California," Community Development Investment Center Working Paper 2009-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Stephen LeRoy & Munpyung O & John Krainer, 2009. "Subprime Mortgages," 2009 Meeting Papers 1077, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Abdala Rioja, Yamile E, 2011. "All Things Considered: The Interaction of the Reasons for the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 33408, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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