Financial markets forecasts revisited: are they rational, herding or bold?
AbstractWe test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly influenced by past forecasts, (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: while forecasting behavior in the stock market seems to be herding, that in the bond market seems to be bold in the sense that their current forecasts tend to be negatively related to past forecasts, and (iii) the dissonance is due, at least partially, to the individual forecasters' behavior that is influenced by their own past forecasts rather than others. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 106.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Ippei Fujiwara & Hibiki Ichiue & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Yosuke Shigemi, 2012. "Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics; Underlying Principles
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-02-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-02-01 (Forecasting)
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