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Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Miranda-Pinto
  • Daniel P. Murphy
  • Kieran Walsh
  • Eric Young

Abstract

We document that the interest rate response to fiscal stimulus (IRRF) is lower in countries with high inequality or high household debt. To interpret this evidence we develop a model in which households take on debt to maintain a consumption threshold (saving constraint). Now debt-burdened, these households use additional income to deleverage. In economies with more debt-burdened households, increases in government spending tighten credit conditions less (relax credit conditions more), leading to smaller increases (larger declines) in the interest rate. Our theoretical framework predicts that the negative relationship between the IRRF and debt only holds when credit is not restricted. It also predicts that the consumption response to fiscal stimulus is falling in debt and inequality (only during periods of relaxed credit). We perform a series of empirical tests and find support for these predictions. In doing so, we provide context to recent evidence on the debt-dependent effects of government spending by highlighting that the relationship between debt and fiscal effects varies with credit conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel P. Murphy & Kieran Walsh & Eric Young, 2020. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus," Working Papers 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:87537
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202007
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    Cited by:

    1. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Murphy, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Luisa Corrado & Aicha Kharazi, 2022. "Collateral, Household Borrowing, and Income Distribution," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS90, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    3. Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B. & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James, 2022. "Government spending and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Fei Guo & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan & Tao Chen & Chuntien Hu, 2021. "Fiscal Multiplier, Monetary Shock and Hand-to-Mouth Household," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_025, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; fiscal stimulus; interest rates; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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