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Entry, exit and the determinants of market structure

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Author Info
Timothy Dunne
Shawn D. Klimek
Mark J. Roberts
Daniel Yi Xu

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Abstract

Market structure is determined by the entry and exit decisions of individual producers. These decisions are driven by expectations of future profits which, in turn, depend on the nature of competition within the market. In this paper we estimate a dynamic, structural model of entry and exit in an oligopolistic industry and use it to quantify the determinants of market structure and long-run firm values for two U.S. service industries, dentists and chiropractors. We find that entry costs faced by potential entrants, fixed costs faced by incumbent producers, and the toughness of short-run price competition are all important determinants of long run firm values and market structure. As the number of firms in the market increases, the value of continuing in the market and the value of entering the market both decline, the probability of exit rises, and the probability of entry declines. The magnitude of these effects differ substantially across markets due to differences in exogenous cost and demand factorsand across the dentist and chiropractor industries. Simulations using the estimated model for the dentist industry show that pressure from both potential entrants and incumbent firms discipline long-run profits. We calculate that a seven percent reduction in the mean sunk entry cost would reduce a monopolist's long-run profits by the same amount as if the firm operated in a duopoly.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0907.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0907

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Keywords: Markets ; Competition ; Service industries;

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  3. Katja Seim Author-Email: kseim@wharton.upenn.edu Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania, 2006. "An Empirical Model of Firm Entry with Endogenous Product-type Choices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 619-640, Autumn.
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  5. Michael J. Mazzeo, 2002. "Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(2), pages 221-242, Summer.
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  7. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2005. "Market Size Matters," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 1-25, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Berry, Steven & Reiss, Peter, 2007. "Empirical Models of Entry and Market Structure," Handbook of Industrial Organization, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1991. "Entry and Competition in Concentrated Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 977-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Victor, Aguirregabiria, 2009. "A Method for Implementing Counterfactual Experiments in Models with Multiple Equilibria," MPRA Paper 17805, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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