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Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games

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Author Info
Pesendorfer, Martin
Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp

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Abstract

This Paper studies the identification problem in infinite horizon Markovian games and proposes a generally applicable estimation method. Every period firms simultaneously select an action from a finite set. We characterize the set of Markov equilibria. Period profits are a linear function of equilibrium choice probabilities. The question of identification of these values is then reduced to the existence of a solution to this linear equation system. We characterize the identification conditions. We propose a simple estimation procedure that follows the steps in the identification argument. The estimator is consistent, asymptotic normally distributed, and efficient. We have collected quarterly time series data on pubs, restaurants, coffeehouses, bakeries and carpenters for two Austrian towns between 1982 and 2002. A dynamic entry game is estimated in which firms simultaneously decide whether to enter, remain active, or exit the industry. The period profit estimates are used to simulate the equilibrium behaviour under a policy experiment in which a unit tax is imposed on firms deciding to enter the industry.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3965.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3965

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Related research
Keywords: entry games; estimation of dynamic oligopoly;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
D99 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Other
L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

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  1. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1990. "Entry in Monopoly Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 531-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1987. "Do Entry Conditions Vary across Markets?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-3), pages 833-882. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael J. Mazzeo, 2002. "Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(2), pages 221-242, Summer.
  4. Jofre-Bonet, Mireia & Pesendorfer, Martin, 2000. "Bidding behavior in a repeated procurement auction: A summary," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 1006-1020, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mireia Jofre-Bonet & Martin Pesendorfer, 2003. "Estimation of a Dynamic Auction Game," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1443-1489, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1991. "Entry and Competition in Concentrated Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 977-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Dynamic Product Repositioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Format Switching in the Commercial Radio Industry," NBER Working Papers 13522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Weintraub, Gabriel Y. & Benkard, C. Lanier & Van Roy, Benjamin, 2007. "Computational Methods for Oblivious Equilibrium," Research Papers 1969, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ulrich Doraszelski & Kenneth L. Judd, 2005. "Avoiding the Curse of Dimensionality in Dynamic Stochastic Games," NBER Technical Working Papers 0304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Timothy Dunne & Shawn D. Klimek & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2009. "Entry, Exit, and the Determinants of Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 15313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Marc Rysman, 2003. "Differentiation Across Standards and Adoption Failure in 56K Modems," Working Papers 03-12, NET Institute, revised Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ellickson, Paul & Misra, Sanjog, 2006. "Supermarket Pricing Strategies," Working Papers 06-02, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2007. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: With an Application to Retirement Behavior," Working Papers tecipa-282, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Han Hong & Matthew Shum, 2000. "A Semiparametric Estimator for Dynamic Optimization Models," Economics Working Paper Archive 461, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Nov 2001. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Levin, Jonathan, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Research Papers 1852r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michaela Draganska & Sanjog Misra & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pat Bajari & Liran Einav & Paul Ellickson & Dan Horsky & Sridhar Narayanan & Yesim Orhun & Peter Reiss & Katja Seim & Vishal Singh & Raphael, 2008. "Discrete choice models of firms’ strategic decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 399-416, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Angelique Augereau & Shane Greenstein & Marc Rysman, 2004. "Coordination vs. Differentiation in a Standards War: 56K Modems," NBER Working Papers 10334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stephen Ryan, 2005. "The Costs of Environmental Regulation in a Concentrated Industry," Working Papers 0510, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2005. "A Genetic Algorithm for the Structural Estimation of Games with Multiple Equilibria," Econometrics 0502017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2004. "Sequential Estimation Of Dynamic Discrete Games," Working Papers wp2004_0413, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Yingyao Hu & Matthew Shum, 2008. "Nonparametric Identification of Dynamic Models with Unobserved State Variables," Economics Working Paper Archive 543, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Allan Collard-Wexler, 2006. "Plant Turnover and Demand Fluctuations in the Ready-Mix Concrete Industry," Working Papers 06-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  17. Weintraub, Gabriel Y. & Benkard, C. Lanier & Van Roy, Benjamin, 2007. "Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms," Research Papers 1919r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  18. Timothy Dunne & Shawn D. Klimek & Mark J. Roberts & Yi Xu, 2007. "The dynamics of market structure and market size in two health services industries," Working Paper 0712, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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