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Entry, Exit, and the Determinants of Market Structure

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  • Timothy Dunne
  • Shawn D. Klimek
  • Mark J. Roberts
  • Daniel Yi Xu

Abstract

Market structure is determined by the entry and exit decisions of individual producers. These decisions are driven by expectations of future profits which, in turn, depend on the nature of competition within the market. In this paper we estimate a dynamic, structural model of entry and exit in an oligopolistic industry and use it to quantify the determinants of market structure and long-run firm values for two U.S. service industries, dentists and chiropractors. We find that entry costs faced by potential entrants, fixed costs faced by incumbent producers, and the toughness of short-run price competition are all important determinants of long run firm values and market structure. As the number of firms in the market increases, the value of continuing in the market and the value of entering the market both decline, the probability of exit rises, and the probability of entry declines. The magnitude of these effects differ substantially across markets due to differences in exogenous cost and demand factors and across the dentist and chiropractor industries. Simulations using the estimated model for the dentist industry show that pressure from both potential entrants and incumbent firms discipline long-run profits. We calculate that a seven percent reduction in the mean sunk entry cost would reduce a monopolist's long-run profits by the same amount as if the firm operated in a duopoly.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15313.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Publication status: published as Timothy Dunne & Shawn D. Klimek & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2013. "Entry, exit, and the determinants of market structure," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(3), pages 462-487, 09.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15313

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Amir R. & Halmenschlager C., 2008. "R&D-Induced Industry Polarization and Shakeouts," Working Papers ERMES 0802, ERMES, University Paris 2.
  2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  3. Xiao, Mo & Orazem, Peter F., 2011. "Does the fourth entrant make any difference?: Entry and competition in the early U.S. broadband market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 547-561, September.
  4. Mo Xiao & Ying Fan, 2012. "Entry under Subsidy: the Competitive U.S. Local Telephone Industry," 2012 Meeting Papers 374, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Martin Gaynor & Robert J. Town, 2011. "Competition in Health Care Markets," NBER Working Papers 17208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Otsu, Taisuke & Pesendorfer, Martin & Takahashi, Yuya, 2013. "Testing for Equilibrium Multiplicity in Dynamic Markov Games," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 423, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  7. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2009. "A Method for Implementing Counterfactual Experiments in Models with Multiple Equilibria," Working Papers tecipa-381, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  8. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2012. "Productivity Dynamics and the Role of “Big-Box” Entrants in Retailing," Working Paper Series 898, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  9. Ying Fan & Xiao Mo, 2010. "Estimating the Option Value of Waiting: A Dynamic Entry Game of the U.S. Local Telephone Competition," Working Papers 10-14, NET Institute.
  10. Nathan Yang, 2011. "An Empirical Model of Industry Dynamics with Common Uncertainty and Learning from the Actions of Competitors," Working Papers 11-16, NET Institute.
  11. Maican, Florin & Orth, ´Matilda, 2013. "Entry Regulations, Product Differentiation and Determinants of Market Structure," Working Paper Series 984, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  12. Victor Aguirregabiria & Junichi Suzuki, 2013. "Identification and Counterfactuals in Dynamic Models of Market Entry and Exit," Working Papers tecipa-475, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  13. Maican, Florin G., 2012. "From Boom to Bust and Back Again: A dynamic analysis of IT services," Working Papers in Economics 543, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  14. Naoaki Minamihashi, 2011. "Prevention of Competition by Competition Law: Evidence from Unbundling Regulation on Fiber-Optic Networks in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0804, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  15. Panle Jia Barwick & Parag A. Pathak, 2011. "The Costs of Free Entry: An Empirical Study of Real Estate Agents in Greater Boston," NBER Working Papers 17227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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