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Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiji Chen
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a significant portion of fluctuations in bank loans and aggregate output.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiji Chen & Patrick C. Higgins & Tao Zha, 2020. "Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:88035
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2020-06
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Cycles in lending standards : Data from the senior loan officer opinion survey
      by ? in FRED blog on 2023-01-26 14:00:00

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kyle Dempsey & Felicia Ionescu, 2021. "Lending Standards and Borrowing Premia in Unsecured Credit Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ewa Wróbel, 2022. "What drives bank lending policy? The evidence from bank lending survey for Poland," NBP Working Papers 352, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous regime switching; asymmetric credit allocation; land prices; heavy GDP; debt-to-GDP ratio; nonlinear effects; GDP growth target; heavy loans; real estate; bank loans; business cycles; debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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