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Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun

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  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Jeffrey Frankel

    (Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)

Abstract

We offer a framework to assign quantitative allocations of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), across countries, one budget period at a time. Under the two-part plan: (i) China, India, and other developing countries accept targets at Business as Usual (BAU) in the coming budget period, the same period in which the US first agrees to cuts below BAU; and (ii) all countries are asked in the future to make further cuts in accordance with a common numerical formula to all. The formula is expressed as the sum of a Progressive Reductions Factor, a Latecomer Catch-up Factor, and a Gradual Equalization Factor. This paper builds on our previous work in many ways. First we update targets to reflect pledges made by governments after the Copenhagen Accord of December 2010 and confirmed at the Cancun meeting of December 2011. Second, the WITCH model, which we use to project economic and environmental effects of any given set of emission targets, has been refined and updated to reflect economic and technological developments. We include the possibility of emissions reduction from bio energy (BE), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and avoided deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) which is an important component of pledges in several developing countries. Third, we use a Nash criterion for evaluating whether a country’s costs are too high to sustain cooperation.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2011.66.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.66

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Keywords: Cancun; Climate; Concentrations; Cooperation; Copenhagen; Costs; Developing Countries; Development; Emissions; Equity; Global Climate; Global Warming; Greenhouse Gas; Human Development; International; Kyoto; Sustainable; Treaty; United Nations; WITCH;

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  1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2008. "Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures. A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement," Working Papers 2008.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  3. Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre, 2011. "Sustainability in the Presence of Global Warming: Theory and Empirics," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2011-05, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  4. Seidman, Laurence & Lewis, Kenneth, 2009. "Compensations and contributions under an international carbon treaty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-350, May.
  5. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2006. "A Credible Foundation For Long Term International Cooperation On Climate Change," CAMA Working Papers 2006-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2006. "A Credible Foundation For Long Term International Cooperation On Climate Change," CAMA Working Papers 2006-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
  8. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
  9. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades," NBER Working Papers 14876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tavoni, Massimo & Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "Counting Only the Hits? The Risk of Underestimating the Costs of Stringent Climate Policy," Papers WP324, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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