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Counting Only the Hits? The Risk of Underestimating the Costs of Stringent Climate Policy

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  • Tavoni, Massimo
  • Tol, Richard S. J.

Abstract

This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs -and the uncertainty about the costs- of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2°C of the European Union and the G8. The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets. We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality. The results show highly variable costs for the most difficult scenarios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP324.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp324

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Keywords: risk/Policy/uncertainty/European Union;

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References

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  1. Fischer, Carolyn & Morgenstern, Richard, 2003. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," Discussion Papers dp-03-42-rev, Resources For the Future.
  2. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  3. John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
  4. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
  5. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
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RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Abatement costs
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Cited by:
  1. Valentina Bosetti & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun," NBER Working Papers 17669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bosetti, Valentina & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets," Working Paper Series rwp12-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Massimo Tavoni, 2012. "Timing of Mitigation and Technology Availability in Achieving a Low-Carbon World," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 353-369, March.
  4. David I. Stern & John C. V. Pezzey & N. Ross Lambie, 2011. "Where in the World is it Cheapest to Cut Carbon Emissions? Ranking Countries by Total and Marginal Cost of Abatement," CCEP Working Papers 1111, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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