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Precautionary Effect and Variations of the Value of Information

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Author Info
Laurent Gilotte (CIRED)
Michel de Lara (CERMICS)
Abstract

For a sequential, two-period decision problem with uncertainty and under broad conditions (non-finite sample set, endogenous risk, active learning and stochastic dynamics), a general sufficient condition is provided to compare the optimal initial decisions with or without information arrival in the second period. More generally the condition enables the comparison of optimal decisions related to different information structures. It also ties together and clarifies many conditions for the so-called irreversibility effect that are scattered in the environmental economics literature. A numerical illustration with an integrated assessment model of climate-change economics is provided.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2005.28.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.28

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Related research
Keywords: Value of Information; Uncertainty; Irreversibility effect; Climate change;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q29 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-233, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Conrad, Jon M, 1980. "Quasi-Option Value and the Expected Value of Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 813-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Philippe Ambrosi & Stéphane Hallegatte & Franck Lecocq & Patrice Dumas & Minh Ha-Duong, 2003. "Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages," Post-Print halshs-00000966_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ha-Duong, Minh, 1998. "Quasi-option value and climate policy choices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 599-620, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gjerde, Jon & Grepperud, Sverre & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1999. "Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 289-317, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1999. "Bayesian learning, growth, and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 491-518, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-50, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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