Precautionary Effect and Variations of the Value of Information
AbstractFor a sequential, two-period decision problem with uncertainty and under broad conditions (non-finite sample set, endogenous risk, active learning and stochastic dynamics), a general sufficient condition is provided to compare the optimal initial decisions with or without information arrival in the second period. More generally the condition enables the comparison of optimal decisions related to different information structures. It also ties together and clarifies many conditions for the so-called irreversibility effect that are scattered in the environmental economics literature. A numerical illustration with an integrated assessment model of climate-change economics is provided.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2005.28.
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Value of Information; Uncertainty; Irreversibility effect; Climate change;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
- D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- Q29 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-24 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jean-Charles Hourcade & Philippe Ambrosi & Stéphane Hallegatte & Franck Lecocq & Patrice Dumas & Minh Ha-Duong, 2003. "Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages," Post-Print halshs-00000966, HAL.
- Ha-Duong, Minh, 1998.
"Quasi-option value and climate policy choices,"
Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 599-620, December.
- Conrad, Jon M, 1980. "Quasi-Option Value and the Expected Value of Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 813-20, June.
- Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
- Sébastien Rouillon, 2001.
"Catastrophe climatique irréversible, incertitude et progrès de la connaissance,"
Programme National Persée, vol. 52(1), pages 61-90.
- Sébastien Rouillon, 2001. "Catastrophe climatique irréversible, incertitude et progrès de la connaissance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(1), pages 61-90.
- Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-50, May.
- Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
- Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
- Gjerde, Jon & Grepperud, Sverre & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1999.
"Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 289-317, August.
- Jon Gjerde & Sverre Grepperud & Snorre Kverndokk, 1998. "Optimal Climate Policy under the Possibility of a Catastrophe," Discussion Papers 209, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1999. "Bayesian learning, growth, and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 491-518, February.
- Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January.
- Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June.
- Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-233, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.