IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/polidp/13021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining Japan's Unproductive Two Decades

Author

Listed:
  • FUKAO Kyoji

Abstract

Using industry- and micro-level data, this paper examines why Japan's productivity growth has been slow for such a long time and how it can be accelerated in the future. Japan's capital-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio continued to increase after 1991, which must have contributed to the decline in the rate of return on capital in Japan by decreasing the marginal productivity of capital. On the other hand, accumulation of information and communications technology (ICT) capital and intangible investment in Japan was very slow. Compared with large firms, which enjoyed an acceleration in total factor productivity (TFP) growth in recent years, Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were left behind in ICT capital and intangible investment, and their productivity growth has been very low. Furthermore, as large firms expanded their supply chains globally and relocated their factories abroad, research and development (R&D) spillovers from large firms to SMEs seem to have declined.

Suggested Citation

  • FUKAO Kyoji, 2013. "Explaining Japan's Unproductive Two Decades," Policy Discussion Papers 13021, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:polidp:13021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/pdp/13p021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    2. Inklaar Robert & Timmer Marcel P. & Ark Bart van, 2007. "Mind the Gap! International Comparisons of Productivity in Services and Goods Production," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 281-307, May.
    3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    4. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    5. MATSUURA Toshiyuki & SATO Hitoshi & WAKASUGI Ryuhei, 2011. "Temporary Workers, Permanent Workers, and International Trade: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data," Discussion papers 11030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O’Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts: An Overview," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 71-85, Spring.
    7. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Kyoji Fukao & Tsutomu Miyagawa & Kentaro Mukai & Yukio Shinoda & Konomi Tonogi, 2009. "Intangible Investment In Japan: Measurement And Contribution To Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 717-736, September.
    9. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    10. Rene Belderbos & Kyoji Fukao & Tomoko Iwasa, 2009. "Foreign and domestic R&D investment," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 369-380.
    11. Kyoji Fukao & Tomohiko Inui & Hiroki Kawai & Tsutomu Miyagawa, 2004. "Sectoral Productivity and Economic Growth in Japan, 1970-98: An Empirical Analysis Based on the JIP Database," NBER Chapters, in: Growth and Productivity in East Asia, pages 177-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Haskel, J & Corrado, C & Jona-Lasinio, C & Iommi, M, 2012. "Intangible capital and growth in advanced economies: measurement methods and comparative results," Working Papers 9913, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    13. Kyoji Fukao & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2006. "Why Did Japan'S Tfp Growth Slow Down In The Lost Decade? An Empirical Analysis Based On Firm‐Level Data Of Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 195-228, June.
    14. YoungGak KIM & FUKAO Kyoji & MAKINO Tatsuji, 2010. "The Structural Causes of Japan's "Two Lost Decades" (Japanese)," Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) 10004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Gary R. Saxonhouse & Robert M Stern, 2002. "Japan's Lost Decade: Origins, Consequences, and Prospects For Recovery," Working Papers 484, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    16. Alan Ahearne & Naoki Shinada, 2005. "Zombie firms and economic stagnation in Japan," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 363-381, December.
    17. Tomohiko Inui & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2005. "Survey: Did the TFP Growth Rate in Japan Decline in the 1990s (in Japanese)," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 176, pages 138-164, June.
    18. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2004. "Growth and Productivity in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386805, December.
    19. Toshiyuki Matsuura & Kazuyuki Motohashi, 2005. "Market Dynamics and Productivity in Japanese Retail Industry in the late 1990's," Discussion papers 05001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. B.K. Atrostic & Kazuyuki Motohashi & Sang Nguyen, 2008. "Computer Network Use and Firms' Productivity Performance: The United States vs. Japan," Working Papers 08-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    21. Aw, Bee Yan & Chen, Xiaomin & Roberts, Mark J., 2001. "Firm-level evidence on productivity differentials and turnover in Taiwanese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 51-86, October.
    22. Carol Coorado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Iona Lasinio & Massimiliano Iommi, 2012. "Intangible Capital and Growth Strategies for Advanced Economies: Measurement and Comparative Results," Working Papers LuissLab 12101, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    23. Nicholas Bloom & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Americans Do IT Better: US Multinationals and the Productivity Miracle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 167-201, February.
    24. FUKAO Kyoji, 2010. "Service Sector Productivity in Japan: The key to future economic growth," Policy Discussion Papers 10001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    25. FUKAO Kyoji & KWON Hyeog Ug, 2011. "Sources of Future Economic Growth in Japan: An empirical analysis based on micro-data (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 11045, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    26. Ando, Albert, 2002. "Missing Household Saving and Valuation of Corporations: Inquiry into Japanese National Accounts I," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 147-176, June.
    27. Kyoji Fukao & Ryo Kambayashi & Daiji Kawaguchi & Hyeog Ug Kwon & Young Gak Kim & Izumi Yokoyama, 2006. "Deferred Compensation: Evidence from Employer-Employee Matched Data from Japan," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-187, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    28. IKEUCHI Kenta & YoungGak KIM & KWON Hyeog Ug & FUKAO Kyoji, 2013. "Productivity Dynamics and R&D Spillovers in the Japanese Manufacturing Industry: An empirical analysis based on micro-level data (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 13036, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    29. Tsutomu Miyagawa & Shoichi Hisa, 2013. "Estimates Of Intangible Investment By Industry And Productivity Growth In Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 42-72, March.
    30. Inklaar, Robert & Timmer, Marcel P., 2008. "GGDC Productivity Level Database: International Comparisons of Output, Inputs and Productivity at the Industry Level," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-104, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    31. Haskel, Jonathan & Iommi, Massimiliano, 2012. "Intangible Capital and Growth in Advanced Economies: Measurement and Comparative Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 9061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Hyunbae CHUN & FUKAO Kyoji & HISA Shoichi & MIYAGAWA Tsutomu, 2012. "Measurement of Intangible Investments by Industry and Its Role in Productivity Improvement Utilizing Comparative Studies between Japan and Korea," Discussion papers 12037, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    33. KIM Young Gak & KWON Hyeog Ug & FUKAO Kyoji, 2007. "Entry and Exit of Companies and Establishments, and Productivity at the Industry Level (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    34. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. van Ark, Bart & Hao, Janet X. & Corrado, Carol & Hulten, Charles, 2009. "Measuring intangible capital and its contribution to economic growth in Europe," EIB Papers 3/2009, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    36. Kim, YoungGak & Fukao, Kyoji & Makino, Tatsuji, 2010. "The Structural Causes of Japan's “Two Lost Decades”," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(3), pages 237-260, July.
    37. INUI Tomohiko & KIM Young Gak & KWON Hyeog Ug & FUKAO Kyoji, 2011. "Productivity Dynamics and Japan's Economic Growth: An empirical analysis based on the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 11042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    38. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Van Ark, 2007. "Mind the Gap! International Comparisons of Productivity in Services and Goods Production," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 281-307, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Lechevalier & Pauline Debanes & Shin Wonkyu, 2016. "Financialization and industrial policies in Japan and Korea: Evolving complementarities and loss of institutional capabilities," Working Papers halshs-01431783, HAL.
    2. Jong-Wha Lee, 2013. "Comment on “Explaining Japan's Unproductive Two Decades”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 214-215, December.
    3. Jetpan Wetwitoo & Hironori Kato, 2017. "Inter-regional transportation and economic productivity: a case study of regional agglomeration economies in Japan," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 321-344, September.
    4. Kyoji FUKAO & Taisuke KAMEDA & Kota NAKAMURA & Ryoichi NAMBA & Masahiro SATO, 2017. "Measurement of Deflators and Real Value Added in the Service Sector," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 194, pages 9-44, May.
    5. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    6. Marcus Noland, 2013. "Comment on “Explaining Japan's Unproductive Two Decades”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 216-217, December.
    7. W Max Corden & Sisira Jayasuriya, 2016. "The Japanese macroeconomic mystery," Departmental Working Papers 2016-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi & Kwak, Do Won, 2020. "Aging labor, ICT capital, and productivity in Japan and Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Lechevalier, Sébastien & Debanes, Pauline & Shin, Wonkyu, 2019. "Financialization and industrial policies in Japan and Korea: Evolving institutional complementarities and loss of state capabilities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-85.
    10. Jun-Ichi Nakamura & Shin-Ichi Fukuda, 2013. "What Happened To "Zombie" Firms In Japan?: Reexamination For The Lost Two Decades," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-18.
    11. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2013. "Japan at the Crosswords: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 169-192, December.
    12. Fukao, Kyoji, 2017. "Secular Stagnation and the Labor Market in Japan," SSPJ Discussion Paper Series DP17-2, Service Sector Productivity in Japan: Determinants and Policies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2021. "Economic crisis and innovation capacity of Japan: Evidence from cross-country patent citations," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Marcus Noland, 2018. "Comment on “Has Abenomics Succeeded in Raising Japan's Inward Foreign Direct Investment?â€," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 169-170, January.
    15. Kyoji Fukao & YoungGak Kim & HyeogUg Kwon, 2021. "The Causes of Japan’s Economic Slowdown: An Analysis Based on the Japan Industrial Productivity Database," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 56-88, Spring.
    16. Galina Besstremyannaya & Richard Dasher & Sergei Golovan, 2018. "Growth through acquisition of innovations," Working Papers w0247, New Economic School (NES).
    17. Randall Jones & Yosuke Jin, 2017. "Boosting productivity for inclusive growth in Japan," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1414, OECD Publishing.
    18. Dale W. JORGENSON & NOMURA Koji & Jon D. SAMUELS, 2015. "A Half Century of Trans-Pacific Competition: Price level indices and productivity gaps for Japanese and U.S. industries, 1955-2012," Discussion papers 15054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Galina Besstremyannaya & Richard Dasher & Sergei Golovan, 2019. "Growth through acquisition of innovations," Working Papers w0247, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    20. FUKAO Kyoji & IKEUCHI Kenta & KWON Hyeog Ug & YoungGak KIM & MAKINO Tatsuji & TAKIZAWA Miho, 2015. "Lessons from Japan's Secular Stagnation," Discussion papers 15124, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. FUKAO Kyoji & IKEUCHI Kenta & KWON Hyeog Ug & YoungGak KIM & MAKINO Tatsuji & TAKIZAWA Miho, 2015. "Lessons from Japan's Secular Stagnation," Discussion papers 15124, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Nakamura, Koji & Kaihatsu, Sohei & Yagi, Tomoyuki, 2019. "Productivity improvement and economic growth: lessons from Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-79.
    3. Carol Corrado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2017. "Knowledge Spillovers, ICT and Productivity Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 592-618, August.
    4. Koji Nakamura & Sohei Kaihatsu & Tomoyuki Yagi, 2018. "Productivity Improvement and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    5. Derya Fındık & Aysıt Tansel, 2013. "Intangible investment and Technical efficiency: The case of software-intensive manufacturing firms in Turkey," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 235, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    6. Chen, Wen & Niebel, Thomas & Saam, Marianne, 2016. "Are intangibles more productive in ICT-intensive industries? Evidence from EU countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 471-484.
    7. Hyunbae Chun & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 2016. "Intangible Investment and Changing Sources of Growth in Korea," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 50-76, March.
    8. Ni, Qingshan & Zhang, Hao & Lu, Yanjin, 2023. "Way to measure Intangible capital for innovation-driven economic growth: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 156-172.
    9. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Szalavetz, Andrea, 2012. "Az immateriális beruházások és a nem közvetlenül a termelésben foglalkoztatottak szerepe a gazdasági felzárkózásban [The role intangible investments and non-production workers play in economic catc," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1187-1206.
    11. Derya Findik & Aysit Tansel, 2015. "​ Intangible Investment and Technical Efficiency: The Case of Software-Intensive Manufacturing Firms in Turkey," Working Papers 2015/11, Turkish Economic Association.
    12. Tsutomu Miyagawa & Shoichi Hisa, 2013. "Measurement of Intangible Investment by Industry and Economic Growth in Japan," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(2), pages 405-432, March.
    13. Kosuke Aoki & Naoko Hara & Maiko Koga, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Innovation and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    14. Carolina Hintzmann & Josep Lladós-Masllorens & Raul Ramos, 2021. "Intangible Assets and Labor Productivity Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Peter Mayerhofer & Michael Klien, 2016. "Unternehmensinvestitionen in den österreichischen Bundesländern. Entwicklung – Struktur – Funktion regionaler Förderung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61950, April.
    16. Toma LANKAUSKIENE, 2019. "Productivity determinants and their contributions to productivity growth in the Baltic countries before and after their entry into the European Union: a comparative industrial perspective," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 63-88, December.
    17. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1046, OECD Publishing.
    18. HOSONO Kaoru & MIYAKAWA Daisuke & TAKIZAWA Miho & YAMANOUCHI Kenta, 2016. "Complementarity and Substitutability between Tangible and Intangible Capital: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data," Discussion papers 16024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. HOSONO Kaoru, 2009. "Financial Crisis, Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Productivity in Japan," Discussion papers 09012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Guo, Kaiming & Hang, Jing & Yan, Se, 2021. "Servicification of investment and structural transformation: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:polidp:13021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.