IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id8436.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Where is India’s Growth Headed?

Author

Listed:
  • Ila Patnaik

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the sources of output growth in the past three decades and discuss the outlook going forward. Projections are made for the growth of factors of production and the growth of trend GDP per worker for the period 2013-2030. In general, the outlook for factors appears strong. As long as policy reforms support the broad environment for investment in infrastructure and in education and eliminate frictions in the efficient use of labor and capital, all of which can also boost productivity, it does not appear that trend growth is likely to decline in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Where is India’s Growth Headed?," Working Papers id:8436, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:8436
    Note: Institutional Papers
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esocialsciences.org/Download/repecDownload.aspx?fname=A2016118165315_20.pdf&fcategory=Articles&AId=8436&fref=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    2. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    4. Bhalla, Surjit & Kaur, Ravinder, 2011. "Labour force participation of women in India: some facts, some queries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38367, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Stephane Straub, 2011. "Infrastructure and Development: A Critical Appraisal of the Macro-level Literature," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 683-708.
    6. Patibandla, Murali & Petersen, Bent, 2002. "Role of Transnational Corporations in the Evolution of a High-Tech Industry: The Case of India's Software Industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1561-1577, September.
    7. Botirjan Baltabaev, 2014. "Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity Growth: New Macro-Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 311-334, February.
    8. Duval, Romain & de la Maisonneuve, Christine, 2010. "Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 64-80, January.
    9. Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 191-235, September.
    10. Shruthi Jayaram & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2009. "Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India," Trade Working Papers 22972, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2012. "Economic growth in South Asia: Role of infrastructure," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 217-252, January.
    12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Aiyar, Shekhar & Mody, Ashoka, 2013. "The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 105-148.
    14. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    16. Dasgupta, Kunal, 2012. "Learning and knowledge diffusion in a global economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 323-336.
    17. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, December.
    18. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3567, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
    20. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
    21. Kim, Jinyoung, 2012. "Past and future of the labor force in emerging Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 87-100.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2016. "Where is India's Growth Headed?," Working Papers 16/159, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Mohammed Abdullah & Murshed Chowdhury, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity: Any Nexus?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(2), pages 164-190, May.
    4. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    5. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
    6. Castelló-Climent, Amparo & Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop, 2013. "Mass education or a minority well educated elite in the process of growth: The case of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 303-320.
    7. Uwe Sunde & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & Armin Falkbriq & David Huffman & Gerrit Meyerheim, 2022. "Patience and Comparative Development [How Large Are Human-capital Externalities? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2806-2840.
    8. Harald Fadinger & Pablo Fleiss, 2011. "Trade and Sectoral Productivity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 958-989, September.
    9. Monica Martinez-Bravo, 2017. "The Local Political Economy Effects of School Construction in Indonesia," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 256-289, April.
    10. Sampson, Thomas, 2013. "Brain drain or brain gain? Technology diffusion and learning on-the-job," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 162-176.
    11. Regev, Tali & Zoabi, Hosny, 2014. "Talent Utilization And Search For The Appropriate Technology," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 863-882, June.
    12. Zoabi, Hosny, 2006. "Talent Utilization, a Source of Bias in Measuring TFP," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275735, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Chad Turner & Robert Tamura & Sean Mulholland, 2013. "How important are human capital, physical capital and total factor productivity for determining state economic growth in the United States, 1840–2000?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 319-371, December.
    14. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Sergio Rodríguez-Apolinar, 2016. "The Productivity Gap in Latin America: Lessons from 50 Years of Development," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 94097, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    16. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Loss of skill during unemployment and TFP differences across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 215-235.
    17. Berthold Herrendorf & Todd Schoellman, 2017. "Wages, Human Capital, and Structural Transformation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6426, CESifo.
    18. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2006. "The World Technology Frontier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 499-522, June.
    19. Marcelo Soto, 2006. "The Causal Effect of Education on Aggregate Income," Working Papers 0605, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    20. Paul Conway & Sean Dougherty & Artur Radziwill, 2010. "Long-term growth and policy challenges in the large emerging economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 755, OECD Publishing.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:8436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.