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The Volatility of Aid

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  • George Mavrotas
  • David Fielding

Abstract

Issues related to the volatility of aid flows are now becoming crucial in view of their relevance to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper examines aid volatility using data for 66 aid recipients over the period 1973-2002. We improve upon earlier work in this important area by disaggregating total aid inflows into sector and programme aid. In this way they avoid focussing on a single aggregate, unlike most previous studies on aid volatility. They also adopt a different methodology to capture aid volatility. The institutional quality of the aid recipient affects the stability of sector aid but not that of programme assistance. Moreover, more open economies, which tend to be smaller and richer, ceteris paribus, are associated with more volatile sector aid flows. [Discussion Paper No. 2005/06]

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:3166.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3166

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Keywords: aid volatility; aid heterogeneity; project aid; programme assistance; MDGs;

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References

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  1. Stephane Pallage & Michel Robe, 1998. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 63, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  2. Addison, Tony & Mavrotas, George & McGillivray, Mark, 2005. "Aid, Debt Relief and New Sources of Finance for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals," Working Paper Series RP2005/09, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  4. Tito Cordella & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2003. "Budget Support Versus Project Aid," IMF Working Papers 03/88, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Erwin Tiongson & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing," IMF Working Papers 03/40, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
  7. Dollar, David & Alesina, Alberto, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Scholarly Articles 4553020, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 133-162, January.
  10. Bulir, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  11. Mavrotas, George, 2003. "Which Types of Aid Have the Most Impact?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  12. George Mavrotas, 2002. "Foreign aid and fiscal response: Does aid disaggregation matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 534-559, September.
  13. Peter S. Heller & Sanjeev Gupta, 2002. "More Aid—Making It Work for the Poor," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 3(4), pages 131-146, October.
  14. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2000. "Aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 31-49.
  15. Lin, Tun & Mavrotas, George, 2004. "A Contract Perspective on the International Finance Facility," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  16. Tony Killick, 2004. "Politics, Evidence and the New Aid Agenda," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 5-29, 01.
  17. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
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