IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id12768.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

World Economic Outlook, April 2018: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

Author

Listed:
  • International Monetary Fund [IMF]

Abstract

The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. This new World Economic Outlook report projects that advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating, while growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off. For most countries, current favorable growth rates will not last. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to bolster growth, make it more durable, and equip their governments better to counter the next downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund [IMF], 2018. "World Economic Outlook, April 2018: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change," Working Papers id:12768, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:12768
    Note: Institutional Papers
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esocialsciences.org/Download/repecDownload.aspx?fname=A201858152429_57.pdf&fcategory=Articles&AId=12768&fref=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    3. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    4. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    5. Heidi L. Williams, 2013. "Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation: Evidence from the Human Genome," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(1), pages 1-27.
    6. Stiebale, Joel, 2016. "Cross-border M&As and innovative activity of acquiring and target firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    8. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    9. Bernard M. Hoekman & Keith E. Maskus & Kamal Saggi, 2023. "Transfer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilateral and Multilateral Policy Options," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kamal Saggi (ed.), Technology Transfer, Foreign Direct Investment, and the Protection of Intellectual Property in the Global Economy, chapter 5, pages 127-142, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Minyuan Zhao, 2006. "Conducting R& D in Countries with Weak Intellectual Property Rights Protection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1185-1199, August.
    11. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    12. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    13. Ram C. Acharya & Wolfgang Keller, 2009. "Technology transfer through imports," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1411-1448, November.
    14. Donaubauer, Julian & Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2012. "Does aid for education attract foreign investors? An empirical analysis for Latin America," Kiel Working Papers 1806, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Audretsch, David B & Feldman, Maryann P, 1996. "R&D Spillovers and the Geography of Innovation and Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 630-640, June.
    16. Megan MacGarvie, 2006. "Do Firms Learn from International Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 46-60, February.
    17. Coen N. Teulings & Nikolay Zubanov, 2014. "Is Economic Recovery A Myth? Robust Estimation Of Impulse Responses," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 497-514, April.
    18. Mariana Vijil & Laurent Wagner, 2012. "Does Aid for Trade Enhance Export Performance? Investigating the Infrastructure Channel," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 838-868, July.
    19. Céline Allard & Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia & Emmanouil Kitsios & Mr. Juan P Trevino & Ms. Wenjie Chen, 2016. "Trade Integration and Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: In Pursuit of the Missing Link," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2016/004, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Sophia Chen & Estelle Dauchy, 2018. "International Technology Sourcing and Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 2018/051, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    22. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2018. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 168-186.
    23. Federica Coelli & Andreas Moxnes & Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, 2022. "Better, Faster, Stronger: Global Innovation and Trade Liberalization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-216, May.
    24. Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Determinants of Knowledge Flows and Their Effect on Innovation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 308-322, May.
    25. Gustavo Adler & Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Ksenia Koloskova & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Gone with the Headwinds; Global Productivity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 17/04, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Rachel Griffith & Helen Miller, 2011. "Innovation in China: the rise of Chinese inventors in the production of knowledge," IFS Working Papers W11/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    28. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
    29. World Bank, 2008. "Global Economic Prospects 2008 : Technology Diffusion in the Developing World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6335, December.
    30. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
    31. Bettina Kretschmer & Michael Hübler & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2013. "Does Foreign Aid Reduce Energy And Carbon Intensities Of Developing Economies?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 67-91, January.
    32. Ana Carolina Garriga & Brian J. Phillips, 2014. "Foreign Aid as a Signal to Investors," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(2), pages 280-306, March.
    33. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Phillips, Brian John, 2014. "Foreign Aid as a Signal to Investors: Predicting FDI in Post-Conflict Countries," MPRA Paper 88643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Mariagrazia Squicciarini & Hélène Dernis & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Measuring Patent Quality: Indicators of Technological and Economic Value," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2013/3, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes L EugsterInter & Giang Ho & Florence Jaumotte & Roberto Piazza, 2022. "International knowledge spillovers [The race between man and machine: implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1191-1224.
    2. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    3. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2021. "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 257-298, January.
    4. Julian Donaubauer & Dierk Herzer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Aid under Post-Conflict Conditions: A Sector-Specific Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 720-736, April.
    5. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kyriakos Drivas & Claire Economidou & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2022. "Technological Leaders, Laggards and Spillovers: A Network GVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-269, April.
    7. Forman, Chris & van Zeebroeck, Nicolas, 2019. "Digital technology adoption and knowledge flows within firms: Can the Internet overcome geographic and technological distance?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    8. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates & Giammario Impullitti, 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," NBER Working Papers 24543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Manuel Acosta & Daniel Coronado & Esther Ferrándiz & Manuel Jiménez, 2022. "Effects of knowledge spillovers between competitors on patent quality: what patent citations reveal about a global duopoly," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 1451-1487, October.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Matthieu Lequien & Marc J. Melitz, 2018. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Market Size on Innovation: Evidence from French Firm-Level Exports," NBER Working Papers 24600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Li, Xiaogang, 2020. "Innovation, market valuations, policy uncertainty and trade: Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009179, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Anetta Čaplánová & Rudolf Sivák & John Hudson, 2012. "Vplyv priamych zahraničných investícií na inovačnú činnosť firiem [The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Firms´ Innovation Activities]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(6), pages 764-779.
    13. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    14. Philippe Aghion & Benjamin F. Jones & Charles I. Jones, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 237-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Autant-Bernard, Corinne & Fadairo, Muriel & Massard, Nadine, 2013. "Knowledge diffusion and innovation policies within the European regions: Challenges based on recent empirical evidence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 196-210.
    16. Schmiele, Anja, 2009. "Drivers for international innovation activities in developed and emerging countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-064, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Dachs, Bernhard, 2017. "Internationalisation of R&D: A Review of Drivers, Impacts, and new Lines of Research," MPRA Paper 83367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Keller, Wolfgang, 2010. "International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 793-829, Elsevier.
    19. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Matthieu Glachant & Yann Ménière, 2013. "What Drives the International Transfer of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies? Empirical Evidence from Patent Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 161-178, February.
    20. Kafouros, Mario I. & Buckley, Peter J. & Clegg, Jeremy, 2012. "The effects of global knowledge reservoirs on the productivity of multinational enterprises: The role of international depth and breadth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 848-861.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:12768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.