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Timing of Vote Decision in First and Second Order Dutch Elections 1978-1995: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks

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Author Info

  • Eisinga, R.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.

Abstract

A time series (t=921) of weekly survey data on vote intentions in the Netherlands for the period 1978-1995 shows that the percentage of undecided voters follows a cyclical pattern over the election calendar. The otherwise substantial percentage of undecided voters decreases sharply in weeks leading up to an election and gradually increases afterwards. This paper models the dynamics of this asymmetric electoral cycle using artificial neural networks, with the purpose of estimating when the undecided voters start making up their minds. We find that they begin to decide which party to vote for nine weeks before a first order national parliamentary election and one to four weeks before a second order election, depending on the type of election (European Parliament, Provincial States, City-councils). The effect of political campaigns and the implications for political analysis are discussed.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/1408/eeb19960111120067.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 9733/A.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1408

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Related research

Keywords: elections; neural network models; opinion polls;

References

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  1. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  2. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  3. Matsusaka, John G, 1993. " Election Closeness and Voter Turnout: Evidence from California Ballot Propositions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 76(4), pages 313-34, August.
  4. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May.
  5. Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February.
  6. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
  7. Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-75, July.
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