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Financial Stability and Monetary Policy

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  • Martin, Christopher
  • Milas, Costas

Abstract

We argue that although UK monetary policy can be described using a Taylor rule in 1992- 2007, this rule fails during the recent financial crisis. We interpret this as reflecting a change in policymakers’ preferences to give priority to stabilising the financial system. Developing a model of optimal monetary policy with preference shifts, we show this provides a superior empirical model over crisis and pre-crisis periods. We find no response of interest rates to inflation during the financial crisis, possibly implying that the UK abandoned inflation targeting during the financial crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Bath, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 19328.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eid:wpaper:19328

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Keywords: monetary policy; financial crisis;

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References

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  1. Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress From Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "Credit Spread and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "The Sub-Prime Crisis and UK Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(3), pages 119-144, September.
  4. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, 09.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, 05.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  8. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  9. Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Does Instrument Independence Matter under the Constrained Discretionof an Inflation Targeting Goal? Lessons from UK Taylor Rule Empirics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  11. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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Cited by:
  1. Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.

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