IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/104185.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Compound poisson models for weighted networks with applications in finance

Author

Listed:
  • Gandy, Axel
  • Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

Abstract

We develop a modelling framework for estimating and predicting weighted network data. The edge weights in weighted networks often arise from aggregating some individual relationships be- tween the nodes. Motivated by this, we introduce a modelling framework for weighted networks based on the compound Poisson distribution. To allow for heterogeneity between the nodes, we use a regression approach for the model parameters. We test the new modelling framework on two types of financial networks: a network of financial institutions in which the edge weights represent exposures from trading Credit Default Swaps and a network of countries in which the edge weights represent cross-border lending. The compound Poisson Gamma distributions with regression fit the data well in both situations. We illustrate how this modelling framework can be used for predicting unobserved edges and their weights in an only partially observed network. This is for example relevant for assessing systemic risk in financial networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gandy, Axel & Veraart, Luitgard A. M., 2021. "Compound poisson models for weighted networks with applications in finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104185, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:104185
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/104185/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 835-866, October.
    2. in ’t Veld, Daan & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2014. "Finding the core: Network structure in interbank markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 27-40.
    3. Iñaki Aldasoro & Torsten Ehlers, 2018. "Global liquidity: changing instrument and currency patterns," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    5. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    6. Simon Wells, 2004. "Financial interlinkages in the United Kingdom's interbank market and the risk of contagion," Bank of England working papers 230, Bank of England.
    7. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2012. "Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk," Working Papers hal-00697224, HAL.
    8. François Caron & Emily B. Fox, 2017. "Sparse graphs using exchangeable random measures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1295-1366, November.
    9. Craig, Ben & von Peter, Goetz, 2014. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-347.
    10. Gandy, Axel & Veraart, Luitgard Anna Maria, 2019. "Adjustable network reconstruction with applications to CDS exposures," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 193-209.
    11. Iori, G. & Masi, G. D. & Precup, O. V. & Gabbi, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2005. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Working Papers 05/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
    12. Gandy, Axel & Veraart, Luitgard A. M., 2017. "A Bayesian methodology for systemic risk assessment in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66312, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    14. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    15. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    16. Lee, Seung Hwan, 2013. "Systemic liquidity shortages and interbank network structures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12.
    17. Iñaki Aldasoro & Torsten Ehlers, 2019. "Concentration in cross-border banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    18. Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana & Bravo-Benitez, Bernardo & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2014. "An empirical study of the Mexican banking system’s network and its implications for systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-265.
    19. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Seung Hwan Lee, 2013. "Systemic Liquidity Shortages and Interbank Network Structures," Working Papers 2013-4, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    21. Rama Cont & Eric Schaanning, 2017. "Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress testing," Working Paper 2017/2, Norges Bank.
    22. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Fire Sales Forensics: Measuring Endogenous Risk," Post-Print hal-03003955, HAL.
    23. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    24. L. C. G. Rogers & L. A. M. Veraart, 2013. "Failure and Rescue in an Interbank Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 882-898, April.
    25. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    26. Agostino Capponi & Martin Larsson, 2015. "Price Contagion through Balance Sheet Linkages," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 227-253.
    27. Veraart, Luitgard A. M., 2020. "Distress and default contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    29. Axel Gandy & Luitgard A. M. Veraart, 2017. "A Bayesian Methodology for Systemic Risk Assessment in Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4428-4446, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Domenico Di Gangi & Giacomo Bormetti & Fabrizio Lillo, 2022. "Score Driven Generalized Fitness Model for Sparse and Weighted Temporal Networks," Papers 2202.09854, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    2. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    3. Sadamori Kojaku & Giulio Cimini & Guido Caldarelli & Naoki Masuda, 2018. "Structural changes in the interbank market across the financial crisis from multiple core-periphery analysis," Papers 1802.05139, arXiv.org.
    4. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    5. Chen, Yu & Jin, Shuyue & Wang, Xiasi, 2021. "Solvency contagion risk in the Chinese commercial banks’ network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    6. Aikman, David & Beale, Daniel & Brinley-Codd, Adam & Covi, Giovanni & Hüser, Anne‑Caroline & Lepore, Caterina, 2023. "Macroprudential stress‑test models: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1037, Bank of England.
    7. EDOARDO GAFFEO & Lucio Gobbi & Massimo Molinari, 2018. "Bilateral netting and systemic liquidity shortages in banking networks," DEM Working Papers 2018/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    9. Edoardo Gaffeo & Lucio Gobbi & Massimo Molinari, 2019. "The economics of netting in financial networks," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 595-622, September.
    10. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    12. Nadine Walters & Gusti Van Zyl & Conrad Beyers, 2019. "Financial Contagion In Large, Inhomogeneous Stochastic Interbank Networks," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-26, March.
    13. Braouezec, Yann & Wagalath, Lakshithe, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1180-1197.
    14. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    15. Accominotti, Olivier & Lucena-Piquero, Delio & Ugolini, Stefano, 2023. "Intermediaries’ substitutability and financial network resilience: A hyperstructure approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    16. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    17. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    18. Covi, Giovanni & Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Brinley Codd, Adam & Hill, John, 2017. "The decline of solvency contagion risk," Bank of England working papers 662, Bank of England.
    20. Liu, Anqi & Paddrik, Mark & Yang, Steve Y. & Zhang, Xingjia, 2020. "Interbank contagion: An agent-based model approach to endogenously formed networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    eighted directed networks; compound Poisson distribution; regression; subnetwork prediction; financial networks; systemic risk; Springer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:104185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.