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How Ambitious are China and India's Emissions Intensity Targets?

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  • David I. Stern

    ()
    (Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

  • Frank Jotzo

    (ANU Climate Change Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)

Abstract

Several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime. China and India¹s commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40-45% and 20-25% respectively between 2005 and 2020. How feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into input and output mix, climate, and a residual technology variable. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target, and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the US and EU targets. India¹s target is less ambitious, and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports with number 1051.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:een:eenhrr:1051

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Keywords: carbon emissions; climate change; developing countries; projections;

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  1. Kumbhakar, Subal C & Ghosh, Soumendra & McGuckin, J Thomas, 1991. "A Generalized Production Frontier Approach for Estimating Determinants of Inefficiency in U.S. Dairy Farms," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 279-86, July.
  2. Ross Garnaut & Stephen Howes & Frank Jotzo & Peter Sheehan, 2008. "Emissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 377-401, Summer.
  3. Subodh Kumar & R. Robert Russell, 2002. "Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital Deepening: Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 527-548, June.
  4. Stern, David I., 2009. "Energy quality," MPRA Paper 16857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  6. Stern, David I., 2010. "Modeling International Trends in Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emissions," Research Reports 94950, Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub.
  7. Warwick J. McKibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2010. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord," CAMA Working Papers 2010-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Fischer, Carolyn & Springborn, Michael R., 2009. "Emissions Targets and the Real Business Cycle: Intensity Targets versus Caps or Taxes," Discussion Papers dp-09-47, Resources For the Future.
  9. K. Hadri & C. Guermat & J. Whittaker, 2003. "Estimation of technical inefficiency effects using panel data and doubly heteroscedastic stochastic production frontiers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 203-222, January.
  10. Frank Jotzo & John Pezzey, 2007. "Optimal intensity targets for greenhouse gas emissions trading under uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 259-284, October.
  11. Lopez, Ramon & Mitra, Siddhartha, 2000. "Corruption, Pollution, and the Kuznets Environment Curve," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 137-150, September.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. What is Business as Usual for China and India?
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-12-04 03:46:00
  2. China Update
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-07-15 02:10:00
  3. How Ambitious are China and India's Emissions Intensity Targets?
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-03-23 01:05:00
  4. Decomposing the 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rebound
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2012-03-11 23:00:00
  5. CSTS-TISS Workshop
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-08-03 12:42:00
  6. Why is Australia Trying to Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-07-25 04:44:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. David I. Stern, 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Primer," CCEP Working Papers 1404, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q., 2014. "Methane emissions in China 2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 886-902.
  3. David I. Stern & John C. V. Pezzey & N. Ross Lambie, 2011. "Where in the World is it Cheapest to Cut Carbon Emissions? Ranking Countries by Total and Marginal Cost of Abatement," CCEP Working Papers 1111, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Luken, Ralph A. & Piras, Stefano, 2011. "A critical overview of industrial energy decoupling programs in six developing countries in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3869-3872, June.
  5. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen emissions targets," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 1078, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Karpestam, Peter, 2013. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1285-1294.
  7. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng & Xu, Ming, 2014. "China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 692-700.
  8. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2013. "Changes in energy efficiency in Australia: A decomposition of aggregate energy intensity using logarithmic mean Divisia approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 341-351.
  9. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q. & Li, J.S. & Tao, L., 2014. "Methane emissions of energy activities in China 1980–2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 11-21.
  10. Frank Jotzo, 2013. "Emissions Trading in China: Principles, Design Options and Lessons from International Practice," CCEP Working Papers 1303, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. P. Shukla & Subash Dhar, 2011. "Climate agreements and India: aligning options and opportunities on a new track," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 229-243, September.

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