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Emissions Intensity Targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen Commitment

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  • Yingying Lu
  • Alison Stegman
  • Yiyong Cai

Abstract

China is currently the world’s largest single source of fossil fuel related CO2 emissions. In response to pressure from the international community, and in recognition of its role in global climate change mitigation, the Chinese government has announced a series of climate policy commitments, in both the Copenhagen Accord and its domestic 12th 5 Year Plan, to gradually reduce emissions intensity by 2020. Emissions intensity reduction commitments differ significantly from emission level reduction commitments that are commonly adopted by developed economies. In this paper, we investigate the economic implications of China’s recent commitments to reduce emissions intensity, and highlight the complexities involved in modelling intensity targets under uncertainty. Using G-Cubed, an intertemporal, computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we show that China’s emissions intensity targets could be achieved with a range of low and high growth emissions level trajectories corresponding to low and high growth GDP scenarios, which lead to different welfare consequences.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-45.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-45

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Keywords: China; Emissions intensity targeting; Climate policy; G-Cubed model;

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References

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  1. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2011. "Assessing China’s carbon intensity pledge for 2020: stringency and credibility issues and their implications," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, September.
  3. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2010. "In What Format and under What Timeframe Would China Take on Climate Commitments? A Roadmap to 2050," Working Papers 2010.112, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
  5. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2010. "Assessing China’s Energy Conservation and Carbon Intensity: How Will the Future Differ from the Past?," Working Papers 2010.92, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Ma, Chunbo & Stern, David I., 2008. "China's changing energy intensity trend: A decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1037-1053, May.
  7. Marschinski, Robert & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2010. "Revisiting the case for intensity targets: Better incentives and less uncertainty for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5048-5058, September.
  8. Warwick McKibbin & Adele Morris & Peter Wilcoxen, 2008. "Expecting The Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility And Climate Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2008-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele, 2012. "Energy and climate change in China," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 689-713, December.
  10. Paltsev, Sergey & Morris, Jennifer & Cai, Yongxia & Karplus, Valerie & Jacoby, Henry, 2012. "The role of China in mitigating climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S444-S450.
  11. Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "The Feasibility of Low Concentration Targets: An Application of FUND," Papers WP285, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Valentina Bossetti & Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Romain Duval & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The Incentives to Participate in and the Stability of International Climate Coalitions: A Game-Theoretic Approach Using the WITCH Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 702, OECD Publishing.
  13. Philippe Quirion, 2005. "Does uncertainty justify intensity emission caps?," Post-Print halshs-00007162, HAL.
  14. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
  15. Saveyn, Bert & Paroussos, Leonidas & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2012. "Economic analysis of a low carbon path to 2050: A case for China, India and Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S451-S458.
  16. Yiyong Cai & Yingying Lu & David Newth & Alison Stegman, 2013. "Modelling Complex Emissions Intensity Targets with a Simple Simulation Algorithm," CAMA Working Papers 2013-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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Cited by:
  1. Yiyong Cai & Yingying Lu & David Newth & Alison Stegman, 2013. "Modelling Complex Emissions Intensity Targets with a Simple Simulation Algorithm," CAMA Working Papers 2013-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Yingying Lu & David I. Stern, 2014. "Substitutability and the Cost of Climate Mitigation Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2014-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Yingying Lu & Alison Stegman & Yiyong Cai, 2012. "Emissions Intensity Targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen Commitment," CAMA Working Papers 2012-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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