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Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: a Threshold SUR Approach

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  • Nektarios Aslanidis

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study economic activity in CEECs and to look at the transmission of economic activity between the euro area and CEECs. Econometric techniques appropriate for a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification are developed to take account of factors that are common to all CEECs. This methodology also allows for asymmetries in the activity of the CEECs governed by the overall euro area activity. The results show slow growth for most CEECs when the euro area economy decelerates, but high growth when the euro area economy grows.

Suggested Citation

  • Nektarios Aslanidis, 2006. "Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: a Threshold SUR Approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2006-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
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    4. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
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    8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    threshold SUR; asymmetry; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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