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The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model

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  • Maureen Rimmer
  • Peter Dixon

Abstract

USAGE is a 500 industry dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the US economy being developed at Monash University in collaboration with the US International Trade Commission. In common with the MONASH model of Australia, USAGE is designed for four modes of analysis: Historical, where we estimate changes in technology and consumer preferences; Decomposition, where we explain periods of economic history in terms of driving factors such as changes in technology and consumer preferences; Forecast, where we derive basecase forecasts for industries, occupations and regions that are consistent with trends from historical simulations and with available expert opinions; and Policy, where we derive deviations from basecase forecast paths caused by assumed policies. This paper reports our first set of historical and decomposition results. The historical results quantify several aspects of technical change in US industries for the period 1992 to 1998 including: intermediate-input-saving technical change; primary-factor-saving technical change; labor-capital bias in technical change; and import-domestic bias in technical change. The historical results also quantify shifts in consumer preferences between commodities. The decomposition results are applied in illustrative analyses of growth in US international trade between 1992 and 1998 and of growth in the US steel industry for this period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 347.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:347

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Keywords: Dynamic CGE modelling; technical change; historical simulation; decomposition simulation; US economy;

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  1. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
  2. W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  3. K.R. Pearson, 1986. "Automating the Computation of Solutions of Large Economic Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-27, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R & Powell, Alan A, 1996. "Features of Multiregional and Intertemporal AGE Modelling with GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 331-53, November.
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