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Overestimating Self-Control: Evidence from the Health Club Industry

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Author Info
Malmendier, Ulrike M. (Stanford U)
Della Vigna, Stefano (U of California Berkeley)
Abstract

Experimental evidence suggests that people make time-inconsistent choices and display overconfidence about positive personal attributes. Do these features affect consumer behavior in the market? To address this question we use a new panel data set from three US health clubs with information on the contract choices and the day-to-day attendance decisions of 7,978 health club members over three years. Members who choose a contract with a flat monthly fee of over $70 attend on average 4.8 times per month. They pay a price per expected visit of more than $17, even though a $10-per-visit fee is also available. On average, these users forgo savings of $700 during their membership. We review many aspects of the consumer behavior, including the interval between last attendance and contract termination, the survival probability, and the correlation between different consumption choices. The empirical results are diffcult to reconcile with the standard assumption of time-consistent preferences and rational expectations. A model of time-inconsistent agents with overconfidence about future patience explains the findings. The agents overestimate the future attendance and delay contract cancellation whenever renewal is automatic. Salesman pressure and overstimation of future effciency are the leading alternative explanations.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1800.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1800

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  3. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2001. "Temptation and Self-Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1403-1435, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Brigitte C. Madrian & Dennis F. Shea, 2001. "THE POWER OF SUGGESTION: INERTIA IN 401(k) PARTICIPATION AND SAVINGS BEHAVIOR," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1149-1187, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2004. "Contracting with Diversely Naïve Agents," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000530, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Joseph G. Eisenhauer & Luigi Ventura, 2006. "The prevalence of hyperbolic discounting: some European evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1223-1234, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Drew Fudenberg & David K Levine, 2005. "A Dual Self Model of Impulse Control," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000876, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Steven R. Grenadier & Neng Wang, 2006. "Investment Under Uncertainty and Time-Inconsistent Preferences," NBER Working Papers 12042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Stefano DellaVigna & M. Daniele Paserman, 2004. "Job Search and Impatience," NBER Working Papers 10837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Eugenio J. Miravete, 2004. "The Doubtful Profitability of Foggy Pricing," Working Papers 04-07, NET Institute, revised Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
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