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A Conjoint-Hazard Model of the Timing of Buyers' Upgrading to Improved Versions of High Technology Products

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Author Info
Kim, Sang-Hoon (Seoul National U)
Srinivasan, V. "Seenu" (Stanford U)
Abstract

This paper presents a method to forecast the sales path of an improved version of a high technology product defined in terms of its price path and multiattribute product specification. The approach is potentially useful to managers to answer what if questions on the effects of alternative price paths and product specifications of the upgrade on when and how many of their customers will upgrade. The proposed approach integrates an individual-level conjoint utility model with a hazard function specification. An illustrative application to the personal digital assistant (PDA) category confirms the predictive validity and potential usefulness of the proposed approach. Among the empirical findings are that higher upgrade costs and expectation of faster product improvement tend to delay buyers' upgrading decisions.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1720r1.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1720r1

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  1. Balcer, Yves & Lippman, Steven A., 1984. "Technological expectations and adoption of improved technology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 292-318, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cripps, John D & Meyer, Robert J, 1994. " Heuristics and Biases in Timing the Replacement of Durable Products," Journal of Consumer Research: An Interdisciplinary Quarterly, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 304-18, September.
  4. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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