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Cross-border production chains and business cycle co-movement between Central and Eastern European countries and euro area member states

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  • Iossifov, Plamen

Abstract

In this paper, we highlight the role of global value chains in the synchronization of economic activity between countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main trade partners from the euro area has increased in recent years. We next show that the cyclical fluctuations of GDP in CEE countries are strongly influenced by pro-cyclical movements of changes in inventories. We then present evidence of the importance of cross border production chains for the economies of CEE countries. We build on these findings to show that the propagation of changes in demand for imports along global supply chains JEL Classification: E32, F44, F62, O52

Suggested Citation

  • Iossifov, Plamen, 2014. "Cross-border production chains and business cycle co-movement between Central and Eastern European countries and euro area member states," Working Paper Series 1628, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141628
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2014. "International Linkages, Value Added Trade and LAC Firms' Productivity," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0198, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Yu, Chunjiao & Zhao, Jiaqi & Cheng, Shixiong, 2023. "GVC trade and business cycle synchronization between China and belt-road countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Christian Buelens & Marcel Tirpák, 2017. "Reading the Footprints: How Foreign Investors Shape Countries’ Participation in Global Value Chains," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(4), pages 561-584, December.
    4. Rita Cappariello & Alberto Felettigh, 2015. "How does foreign demand activate domestic value added? A comparison among the largest euro-area economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1001, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    6. Andrzej Cieslik & Jan Jakub Michalek & Krzysztof Szczygielski, 2019. "What matters for firms’ participation in Global Value Chains in Central and East European countries?," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(3), pages 481-502, September.
    7. Marcin Woźniak, 2015. "Can the Stochastic Equilibrium Job Search Models Fit Transition Economies?," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(4), pages 567-591, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; CEE; Central and Eastern European countries; cross-border production chains; global value chains; inventories;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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