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Estimating GVAR weight matrices

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  • Gross, Marco
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    Abstract

    This paper aims to illustrate how weight matrices that are needed to construct foreign variable vectors in Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models can be estimated jointly with the GVAR's parameters. An application to real GDP and consumption expenditure price inflation as well as a controlled Monte Carlo simulation serve to highlight that 1) In the application at hand, the estimated weights differ for some countries significantly from trade-based ones that are traditionally employed in that context; 2) misspecified weights might bias the GVAR estimate and therefore distort its dynamics; 3) using estimated GVAR weights instead of trade-based ones (to the extent that they differ and the latter bias the global model estimates) shall enhance the out-of-sample forecast performance of the GVAR. Devising a method for estimating GVAR weights is particularly useful for contexts in which it is not obvious how weights could otherwise be constructed from data. JEL Classification: C33, C53, C61, E17

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1523.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131523

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    Related research

    Keywords: forecasting and simulation; Global macroeconometric modeling; models with panel data;

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    1. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp229, IIIS.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How do credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    4. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    6. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Dale F. Gray & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Hiroko Oura & Qianying Chen, 2010. "International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress," IMF Working Papers 10/124, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Dale F. Gray, 2013. "Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR," IMF Working Papers 13/218, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gross, Marco & Kok, Christoffer, 2013. "Measuring contagion potential among sovereigns and banks using a mixed-cross-section GVAR," Working Paper Series 1570, European Central Bank.

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