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Does the euro make a difference? Spatio-temporal transmission of global shocks to real effective exchange rates in an infinite VAR

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  • Bussière, Matthieu
  • Chudik, Alexander
  • Mehl, Arnaud

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on whether the creation of the euro has changed the way global turbulences affect euro area and other economies. Specifically, it considers the impact of global shocks on the competitiveness of individual euro area countries and assesses whether their responses to such shocks have converged, as well as to what pattern. Technically, the paper applies a newly developed methodology based on infinite VAR theory featuring a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries' real effective exchange rates, including those of the individual euro area economies, and compares impulse response functions to the estimated systems before and after EMU with respect to three types of shocks: a global US dollar shock, generalised impulse response function shocks and a global shock to risk aversion. Our results show that the way euro area countries' real effective exchange rates adjust to these shocks has converged indeed, albeit to a pattern that depends crucially on the nature of the shock. This result is noteworthy given the apparent divergence in competitiveness indicators of these countries in the first ten years of EMU, which suggests that this diverging pattern is unlikely to be due to global external shocks with asymmetric effects but rather to other factors, such as country-specific domestic shocks. JEL Classification: C21, C23

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1292.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111292

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Related research

Keywords: euro; High-Dimensional VAR; Identification of Shocks; Real Effective Exchange Rates; Weak and Strong Cross Sectional Dependence;

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Cited by:
  1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
  3. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On Currency Misalignments within the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, 02.
  4. Alexander Chudik & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007–08 financial crisis and the 2010–11 sovereign debt crisis title," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  6. Durand, C. & Lopez, C., 2012. "Taux de change d’équilibre et mesure de la compétitivité au sein de la zone euro," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 190, pages 125-134.
  7. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-2011 sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1416, European Central Bank.
  8. Gross, Marco & Kok, Christoffer, 2013. "Measuring contagion potential among sovereigns and banks using a mixed-cross-section GVAR," Working Paper Series 1570, European Central Bank.

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