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Microeconomic analysis of unemployment persistence in Belgium

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Author Info

  • Amynah Vanessa Gangji
  • Robert Plasman

Abstract

This study investigates the causes of unemployment persistence among the Belgian labour force. The underlying issue was to determine the impact of past unemployment spells on future labour market opportunities. Some European studies have demonstrated the existence of a true causal relationship between successive unemployment spells implying a stigmatisation effect for the unemployed. This so-called state dependence can occur through a reduction in human capital or through employer recruitment and labour retention practices. The model used is a dynamic random effects probit model controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and the initial condition problem. It was applied on the Panel Study on Belgian Households, covering the years 1994 to 2002. The results suggest that while observed and unobserved heterogeneity explain between 57% and 82% of unemployment persistence, the remainder is induced by the presence of state dependence. All else equal, an individual unemployed this year will be between 11.4 and 33 percentage points more likely to be unemployed next year as compared with an employed person. The presence of a stigmatisation effect of unemployment involves that the costs of unemployment are much higher than the simple loss of income and human capital associated to the current job loss. The study demonstrates the importance to concentrate the efforts on the prevention of unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series DULBEA Working Papers with number 07-20.RS.

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Length: 34 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by: DULBEA - Université libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles
Handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-20rs

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Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be
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Related research

Keywords: unemployment persistence; state dependence; dynamic random effects probit model; unobserved heterogeneity; initial condition; Belgium;

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References

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  1. Muhleisen, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1994. "A panel analysis of job changes and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 793-801, April.
  2. Stéfan Lollivier, 2000. "Récurrence du chômage dans l'insertion des jeunes : des trajectoires hétérogènes," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 334(1), pages 49-63.
  3. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 1991. "Some Micro Evidence on Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(1), pages 27-43, February.
  4. Wiji Arulampalam & Alison L. Booth, 2000. "Union status of young men in Britain: a decade of change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 289-310.
  5. Arulampalam, W., 1998. "A Note on Estimated Coefficients in Random Effects Probit Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 520, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
  7. Guilkey, David K. & Murphy, James L., 1993. "Estimation and testing in the random effects probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 301-317, October.
  8. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  9. Narendranathan, Wiji & Elias, Peter, 1993. "Influences of Past History on the Incidence of Youth Unemployment: Empirical Findings for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(2), pages 161-85, May.
  10. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  11. Flaig, Gebhard & Licht, Georg & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Testing for state dependence effects in a dynamic model of male unemployment behaviour," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-07, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  12. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimuller, Josef, 1992. "Do They Come Back Again? Job Search, Labour Market Segmentation and State Dependence as Explanations of Repeat Unemployment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 273-92.
  13. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
  14. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
  16. Eric Cahuzac, 1998. "Past unemployment influences on the incidence of Belgian employees unemployment," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 159, pages 231-254.
  17. Lockwood, Ben, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 733-53, July.
  18. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hassan Ayoub & Jérôme Creel & Etienne Farvaque, 2008. "Détermination du niveau des prix et finances: le cas du Liban 1965-2005," DULBEA Working Papers 08-10.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Olivier Debande & Jean Luc De Meulemeester, 2008. "Quality and variety competition in higher education," DULBEA Working Papers 08-12.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Benoît Mahy & François Rycx & Mélanie Volral, 2008. "L'influence de la dispersion salariale sur la performance des grandes entreprises belges," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13474, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Oscar Bernal Diaz & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," DULBEA Working Papers 09-01.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Charles Plaigin, 2009. "Exploratory study on the presence of cultural and institutional growth spillovers," DULBEA Working Papers 09-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Luigi Aldieri, 2009. "The Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Subsequent Wages in Italy," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 109-119.
  7. Ariane Szafarz, 2007. "Hiring people-like-yourself: a representation of discrimination on the job market," Working Papers CEB 07-021.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  8. Sile Padraigin O'Dorchai, 2008. "Pay inequality in 25 European countries," DULBEA Working Papers 08-06rs, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "Labour market discrimination as an agency cost," Working Papers CEB 08-019.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Caroline Gerschlager, 2008. "Foolishness and identity: Amartya Sen and Adam Smith," DULBEA Working Papers 08-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  11. Amynah Vanessa Gangji & Robert Plasman, 2007. "The Matthew effect of unemployment: how does it affect wages in Belgium," DULBEA Working Papers 07-19.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  12. Abdeslam Marfouk, 2008. "The African brain drain: scope and determinants," DULBEA Working Papers 08-07.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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