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Microeconomic analysis of unemployment in Belgium

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Author Info
Amynah Gangji () (DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels)
Robert Plasman () (DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels)

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Abstract

This study investigates the causes of unemployment persistence among the Belgian labour force. The underlying issue was to determine the impact of past unemployment spells on future labour market opportunities. Some European studies have demonstrated the existence of a true causal relationship between successive unemployment spells implying a stigmatisation effect for the unemployed. This so-called state dependence can occur through a reduction in human capital or through employer recruitment and labour retention practices. The model used is a dynamic random effects probit model controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and the initial condition problem. It was applied on the Panel Study on Belgian Households, covering the years 1994 to 2002. The results suggest that while observed and unobserved heterogeneity explain between 57% and 82% of unemployment persistence, the remainder is induced by the presence of state dependence. All else equal, an individual unemployed this year will be between 11.4 and 33 percentage points more likely to be unemployed next year as compared with an employed person. The presence of a stigmatisation effect of unemployment involves that the costs of unemployment are much higher than the simple loss of income and human capital associated to the current job loss. The study demonstrates the importance to concentrate the efforts on the prevention of unemployment.

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Paper provided by Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA) in its series Working Papers DULBEA with number 07-20.RS.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-20rs

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Keywords: unemployment persistence; state dependence; dynamic random effects probit model; unobserved heterogeneity; initial condition; Belgium;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Muhleisen, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1994. "A panel analysis of job changes and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 793-801, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimuller, Josef, 1992. "Do They Come Back Again? Job Search, Labour Market Segmentation and State Dependence as Explanations of Repeat Unemployment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 273-92.
  5. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 1991. "Some Micro Evidence on Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(1), pages 27-43, February.
  7. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Wiji Arulampalam & Alison L. Booth, 2000. "Union status of young men in Britain: a decade of change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 289-310. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lockwood, Ben, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 733-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Benoît Mahy & François Rycx & Mélanie Volral, 2008. "L’influence de la dispersion salariale sur la performance des grandes entreprises belges," Working Papers DULBEA 08-13.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Abdeslam Marfouk, 2008. "The African Brain Drain: Scope and Determinants," Working Papers DULBEA 08-07.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Hassan Ayoub & Jérôme Creel & Etienne Farvaque, 2008. "Détermination du niveau des prix et finances: le cas du Liban, 1965-2005," Working Papers DULBEA 08-10.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Sîle O'Dorchai, 2008. "Pay inequality in 25 European countries," Working Papers DULBEA 08-06.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Olivier Debande & Jean-Luc De Meulemeester, 2008. "Quality and variety competition in higher education," Working Papers DULBEA 08-12.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Oscar Bernal & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," Working Papers DULBEA 09-01.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ariane Szafarz, 2007. "Hiring People-like-Yourself: A Representation of Discrimination on the Job Market," Working Papers DULBEA 07-21.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "Labor market discrimination as an agency cost," Working Papers DULBEA 08-19.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Charles Plaigin, 2009. "Exploratory study on the presence of cultural and institutional growth spillovers," Working Papers DULBEA 09-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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