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Sunspots in a Cash-in-Advance Model: A Quantitative Assessment

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  • David R. Stockman

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)

Abstract

Does consideration of sunspot equilibria in the cash-in-advance model help the model match key features in the US macroeconomic data? One can use the cash-in-advance model to generate predictions of macro time series via an equilibrium of the model. However, when restricted to minimum state variable stationary rational expectations equilibria, the model's predictions do not match the data well. Recent work by Woodford (1994) and Huo (1995) demonstrates that this model may exhibit a much larger class of equilibria including stationary and non-stationary sunspot equilibria. Does expanding the predictive content of the CIA model by considering this larger set of equilibria help the model match the US data? In this paper, the sunspot equilibria of Woodford (1994) and Huo (1995) are quantitatively explored to answer this question.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Delaware, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 03-12.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 29, pp. 123-144, 2007.
Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:03-12

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Web page: http://www.lerner.udel.edu/departments/economics/department-economics/
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Keywords: dynamics; cash-in-advance; sunspots.;

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References

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  1. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 1999. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 2315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Weder, Mark, 2000. "Animal spirits, technology shocks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 273-295, February.
  3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February.
  4. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  5. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 1995-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Huo, Teh-Ming, 1995. "Stationary sunspot equilibrium in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 831-843, May.
  7. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Stockman, David R., 2007. "Sunspots in a cash-in-advance model: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-144, March.
  10. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  11. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984. "Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy," Discussion Papers 628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
  13. Robert J. Hodrick & Narayana Kocherlakota & Deborah Lucas, 1989. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-In-Advance Models," NBER Working Papers 2891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Stockman, David R., 2007. "Sunspots in a cash-in-advance model: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-144, March.

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