Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate
AbstractThis paper focuses on nominal exchange rates, specifically the US dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen at a daily frequency. We model both absolute values of returns and squared returns using long-memory techniques, being particularly interested in volatility modelling and forecasting given their importance for FOREX dealers. Compared with previous studies using a standard fractional integration framework such as Granger and Ding (1996), we estimate a more general model which allows for dependence not only at the zero but also at other frequencies. The results show differences in the behaviour of the two series: a long-memory cyclical model and a standard I(d) model seem to be the most appropriate for the US dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen respectively.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 975.
Length: 37 p.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Fractional integration; Long memory; Exchange rates; Volatility;
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Faculty Working Papers 04/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-02-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-02-27 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2010-02-27 (International Finance)
- NEP-MST-2010-02-27 (Market Microstructure)
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