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International Migration to Germany: Estimation of a Time-Series Model and Inference in Panel Cointegration

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Author Info

  • Herbert Brücker
  • Boriss Siliverstovs
  • Parvati Trübswetter

Abstract

In this paper we study the determinants of international migration to Germany, 1967-2000. The empirical literature on macro-economic migration functions usually explains migration flows by a set of explanatory variables such as the income differential, employment rates, and migrations stocks as in Hatton (1995), for example. Since macroeconomic variables are widely acknowledged as nonstationary, the standard model in the migration literature can only meet the requirements of modern non-stationary time-series econometrics if migrations flows and the explanatory variables are integrated of the same order and if these variables form a cointegrated set. In order to prove whether the standard specification is compatible with our data, we use the univariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller test as well as its panel data version, developed in Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003), to test for unit roots in the time series. The tests demonstrate that migration rates are stationary, while the remaining explanatory variables follow I(1) processes. Consequently, we suggest an alternative specification of the long-run migration function with migration stocks as the dependent variable. For this specification, we find that all variables are I(1) processes, and that the null of no cointegration can be decisively rejected by applying the panel cointegration test of Pedroni (1999). The parameter inference in the cointegrating regressions is conducted using the method of canonical cointegrating regressions of Park (1992). Our empirical findings generally agree with predictions of migration theory.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.41106.de/dp391.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 391.

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Length: 17 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp391

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Related research

Keywords: Migration; unit roots; panel cointegration;

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References

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  1. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  3. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-21, November.
  4. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  8. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
  9. repec:wop:humbsf:1995-58 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  11. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Stefano Fachin, 2005. "Long-Run Trends in Internal Migrations in Italy: a Study in Panel Cointegration with Dependent Units," Econometrics 0507002, EconWPA.
  2. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
  3. Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Implicit Discrimination in Hiring – Real World Evidence," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0705, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.

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