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The medium and long term effects of an expansion of education on poverty in Côte d'Ivoire. A dynamic microsimulation study

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  • Michael Grimm

    ()
    (University of Göttingen, Department of Economics, DIW and DIAL)

Abstract

I use a dynamic microsimulation model to analyse the distributional effects of an expansion of education in Côte d'Ivoire in the medium and long term (1998-2015). The simulations are performed in order to replicate several policies in force or subject to debate in this country. Various hypotheses concerning the evolution of returns to education and labour demand are tested. The direct effects between education and income as well as the different transmission channels, such as occupational choices, fertility, and household composition, are analysed. The effects of the educational expansion on the growth of household incomes, their distribution and poverty depend very crucially on the hypothesis made on the evolution of returns to education and labour demand. If returns to education remain constant and the labour market segmented, the effects will be very modest. _________________________________ J’utilise un modèle de micro-simulation dynamique pour analyser les effets distributifs d'une expansion de l'éducation en Côte d'Ivoire à moyen et long terme (1998-2015). Les simulations sont effectuées, selon plusieurs politiques actuellement en place ou en discussion dans ce pays. Des hypothèses variées concernant l'évolution du rendement de l'éducation et de la demande de travail sont examinées. Les effets directs entre éducation et revenu comme les différents canaux de transmission, tels que les choix d'activité, la fécondité et la composition des ménages sont analysés. Les effets de l'expansion de l'éducation sur la croissance des revenus des ménages, la distribution du revenu et la pauvreté dépendent de manière cruciale de l'hypothèse faite concernant l'évolution du rendement de l'éducation et de la demande de travail. Si le rendement de l'éducation reste constant et le marché du travail segmenté, les effets seront relativement modérés.

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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2002/12.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200212

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References

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  1. Alan B. Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 2000. "Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?," NBER Working Papers 7591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jeremy I. Bulow & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination and Keynesian Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Grimm, Michael, 2001. "A Decomposition of Inequality and Poverty Changes in the Context of Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Microsimulation Study for C.te d'Ivoire," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  5. Forsythe, Nancy & Korzeniewicz, Roberto Patricio & Durrant, Valerie, 2000. "Gender Inequalities and Economic Growth: A Longitudinal Evaluation," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 573-617, April.
  6. C. Mark Blackden, 1999. "Gender, Growth, and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Other Operational Studies 9873, The World Bank.
  7. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University 801, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
  9. T. Paul Schultz, 1999. "Health and Schooling Investments in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
  10. David Lam & Suzanne Duryea, 1999. "Effects of Schooling on Fertility, Labor Supply, and Investments in Children, with Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(1), pages 160-192.
  11. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  12. Magnac, Th, 1991. "Segmented or Competitive Labor Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 165-87, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Derek Chen & Michael Grimm, 2004. "Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," Development and Comp Systems 0405006, EconWPA.
  2. Denis Cogneau & Anne-Sophie Robilliard, 2004. "Poverty Alleviation Policies in Madagascar: a Micro-Macro Simulation Model," Working Papers, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) DT/2004/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Nov 2004.
  3. Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2007. "CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey," MPRA Paper 9307, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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