A behavioral Gompertz model for cohort fertility schedules in low and moderate fertility populations
AbstractIn this paper, I re-introduce the Gompertz model of age-specific fertility. This model has been rejected by past authors as fitting poorly to cross-sectional, or period rates. However, I find that the model fits very well to recent medium and low fertility cohort schedules in France, Italy, and Japan. A distinct advantage of the Gompertz model is that it has a simple behavioral interpretation as the result of social diffusion of fertility behavior in a cohort competing with the fertility-depressing effects of older age. The Gompertz model, and further refinements that include a better specification of the biological limits of childbearing, offer a means for forecasting future fertility, describing temporal change, and assessing the fertility-limiting effects of older entry into motherhood. In addition, the Gompertz function allows for traditional uses of model age-schedules such as smoothing and correction of data. The model estimates the completed cohort fertility of French, Japanese, and Italian cohorts born in 1965 to be 2.0 , 1.6, and 1.6, respectively. For France, this represents only a minor decline from earlier cohorts, but for Japan the decline in cohort fertility is marked. The model with infertility suggests that recent decline in Italy is largely due to shifts to older ages of childbearing.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2010-021.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190, March.
- Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2001. "Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199244591.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144, March.
- Anastasia Kostaki & Paraskevi Peristera, 2007. "Modeling fertility in modern populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(6), pages 141-194, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Wilhelm).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.