Modeling fertility curves in Africa
AbstractThe modeling of fertility patterns is an essential method researchers use to understand world-wide population patterns. Various types of fertility models have been reported in the literature to capture the patterns specific to developed countries. While much effort has been put into reducing fertility rates in Africa, models which describe the fertility patterns have not been adequately described. This article presents a flexible parametric model that can adequately capture the varying patterns of the age-specific fertility curves of African countries. The model has parameters that are interpretable in terms of demographic indices. The performance of this model was compared with other commonly used models and Akaikeâ€™s Information Criterion was used for selecting the model with best fit. The presented model was able to reproduce the empirical fertility data of 11 out of 15 countries better than the other models considered.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 10 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
African countries; age-specific fertility rates; Akaikes Information Criterion; complementary error function; cubic/quadratic spline; polynomial model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carl Schmertmann, 2005. "Quadratic spline fits by nonlinear least squares," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(5), pages 105-106, March.
- Carl Schmertmann, 2003. "A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(5), pages 81-110, October.
- Anastasia Kostaki & Paraskevi Peristera, 2007. "Modeling fertility in modern populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(6), pages 141-194, March.
- Koehler, Anne B. & Murphree, Emily S., 1988. "A comparison of results from state space forecasting with forecasts from the Makridakis Competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 45-55.
- Ezra Gayawan & Samson B. Adebayo, 2013. "A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(45), pages 1339-1372, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Editorial Office).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.