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On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Investment in Road Infrastructure in Portugal

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  • Alfredo M. Pereira

    ()
    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

  • Jorge M. Andraz

    ()
    (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the economic and fiscal impact of road infrastructure investment in Portugal, focusing on the effects for each administrative region of both local investments and investments in other regions. We estimate VAR models for the national economy as well as for each of the five regions and using the associated impulse-response functions we find that investment in road infrastructures has been a powerful instrument to increase private investment, to create new permanent jobs and to promote long-term growth in all regions. More importantly, investment in road infrastructure, both at the aggregate level and for each one of the five regions, generates fiscal effects that largely exceed the initial investment itself. Accordingly, there is no trade-off in the long-term between the potentially positive economic effects and the potentially negative budgetary effects of such investments, i.e., both economic and budgetary effects are positive. As a corollary, policies that would reduce current road investment as a response to the current budgetary concerns will result in lower long-term growth as well as worse budgetary conditions in the future.

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File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp33rev1.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 33.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jul 2006
Date of revision: 15 Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:33

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Keywords: public investment; road transportation infrastructures; regional spillovers; Portugal;

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  1. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
  2. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2004. "Public highway spending and state spillovers in the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 785-788.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
  5. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
  6. Alfredo MARVÃO PEREIRA & Oriol ROCA-SAGALES, 2007. "Public infrastructure and regional asymmetries in Spain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 503-519.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2005. "Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 177-196, 05.
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Cited by:
  1. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2012. "On The Economic Effects Of Investment In Railroad Infrastructures In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 79-107, June.
  2. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.

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