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Public investment and budgetary consolidation in Portugal

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  • Alfredo Pereira
  • Maria Pinho

Abstract

In this paper we find that public investment in durable goods has a positive effect on long-term economic performance in Portugal. We also find that these positive effects are not strong enough for public investment to pay for itself in the form of future tax revenues. Therefore, cuts in public investment in durable goods, although costly in terms of long-term economic performance seem to be an effective way of alleviating pressure on the public budget. It is important to note, however, that this general result contrasts sharply with the evidence found in this paper for public investment in equipment, a small component of public investment in durable goods, as well as with evidence elsewhere for public investment in transportation infrastructures. For these, the effects on output are strong enough for public investment to pay for itself. Therefore, cuts in these two types of public investment, would have negative long-term economic effects as well as negative long-term budgetary effects. Clearly, not all public investment is created equal.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Pereira & Maria Pinho, 2008. "Public investment and budgetary consolidation in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 7(3), pages 183-203, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:7:y:2008:i:3:p:183-203
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-008-0032-6
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    Cited by:

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    2. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2019. "Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 47-65, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public investment; Economic growth; Budgetary consolidation; Portugal; C32; E62; H54; O52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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